Trader consensus on turnout for the Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton reflects expectations of a sharp decline from the March primary's roughly 2.2 million GOP ballots, driven by historical patterns where runoffs see 50-70% drops due to voter fatigue. The leading 0.6–0.9 million range at 36% implied probability underscores this base rate, while closely trailing 1.2–1.5 million (28%) accounts for sustained interest from Paxton's recent polling leads (e.g., 53-37%) and heavy ad spending exceeding $100 million. Tight odds persist amid uncertainty over mobilization by key voting blocs like evangelicals and border security hawks, with a potential Trump endorsement or intensified get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of the April 27 registration deadline and May 18-22 early voting possibly boosting higher bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTurnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
0.6–0.9M 48%
1.2–1.5M 28%
2.1–2.4M 20%
1.5–1.8M 20%
NEW
NEW
May 26, 2026
<0.6M
10%
0.6–0.9M
37%
0.9–1.2M
22%
1.2–1.5M
28%
1.5–1.8M
20%
1.8–2.1M
21%
2.1–2.4M
20%
2.4–2.7M
10%
2.7M+
16%
0.6–0.9M 48%
1.2–1.5M 28%
2.1–2.4M 20%
1.5–1.8M 20%
NEW
NEW
May 26, 2026
<0.6M
$0 Vol.
10%
0.6–0.9M
$0 Vol.
37%
0.9–1.2M
$379 Vol.
22%
1.2–1.5M
$3,693 Vol.
28%
1.5–1.8M
$0 Vol.
20%
1.8–2.1M
$38 Vol.
21%
2.1–2.4M
$0 Vol.
20%
2.4–2.7M
$124 Vol.
10%
2.7M+
$0 Vol.
16%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus on turnout for the Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton reflects expectations of a sharp decline from the March primary's roughly 2.2 million GOP ballots, driven by historical patterns where runoffs see 50-70% drops due to voter fatigue. The leading 0.6–0.9 million range at 36% implied probability underscores this base rate, while closely trailing 1.2–1.5 million (28%) accounts for sustained interest from Paxton's recent polling leads (e.g., 53-37%) and heavy ad spending exceeding $100 million. Tight odds persist amid uncertainty over mobilization by key voting blocs like evangelicals and border security hawks, with a potential Trump endorsement or intensified get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of the April 27 registration deadline and May 18-22 early voting possibly boosting higher bins.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Volume
$4,233End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus on turnout for the Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton reflects expectations of a sharp decline from the March primary's roughly 2.2 million GOP ballots, driven by historical patterns where runoffs see 50-70% drops due to voter fatigue. The leading 0.6–0.9 million range at 36% implied probability underscores this base rate, while closely trailing 1.2–1.5 million (28%) accounts for sustained interest from Paxton's recent polling leads (e.g., 53-37%) and heavy ad spending exceeding $100 million. Tight odds persist amid uncertainty over mobilization by key voting blocs like evangelicals and border security hawks, with a potential Trump endorsement or intensified get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of the April 27 registration deadline and May 18-22 early voting possibly boosting higher bins.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$4,233End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on turnout for the Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton reflects expectations of a sharp decline from the March primary's roughly 2.2 million GOP ballots, driven by historical patterns where runoffs see 50-70% drops due to voter fatigue. The leading 0.6–0.9 million range at 36% implied probability underscores this base rate, while closely trailing 1.2–1.5 million (28%) accounts for sustained interest from Paxton's recent polling leads (e.g., 53-37%) and heavy ad spending exceeding $100 million. Tight odds persist amid uncertainty over mobilization by key voting blocs like evangelicals and border security hawks, with a potential Trump endorsement or intensified get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of the April 27 registration deadline and May 18-22 early voting possibly boosting higher bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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