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Politics·Global Elections

Terrebone By-Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Terrebone By-Election Winner

Tatiana Auguste 67%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 33%

Maxime Beaudoin <1%

Maria Cantore <1%

Polymarket

$152,000 Vol.

Tatiana Auguste 67%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 33%

Maxime Beaudoin <1%

Maria Cantore <1%

Polymarket

$152,000 Vol.

Market icon

Tatiana Auguste

$46,512 Vol.

67%

Market icon

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné

$35,191 Vol.

33%

Market icon

Maxime Beaudoin

$15,269 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Maria Cantore

$15,400 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Adrienne Charles

$18,565 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Benjamin Rankin

$21,063 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).Liberal Tatiana Auguste leads trader consensus at 67% implied probability to win the April 13 Terrebonne federal by-election, a rematch against Bloc Québécois' Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné (33%) after Auguste's one-vote 2025 general election victory was annulled by the Supreme Court in February 2026 over a ballot miscount. High advance poll turnout nearing 20% signals strong engagement in this pivotal Quebec riding, where a Liberal hold could secure Prime Minister Mark Carney's majority alongside two Toronto by-elections and recent floor-crossings. Carney campaigned with Auguste on April 10, boosting her incumbency edge, while Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet rallied for Sinclair-Desgagné. Nearly 50 candidates, including independents like Maxime Beaudoin, prompted write-in ballots, fragmenting protest votes and favoring frontrunners.

A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$152,000
End Date
Apr 13, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).Liberal Tatiana Auguste leads trader consensus at 67% implied probability to win the April 13 Terrebonne federal by-election, a rematch against Bloc Québécois' Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné (33%) after Auguste's one-vote 2025 general election victory was annulled by the Supreme Court in February 2026 over a ballot miscount. High advance poll turnout nearing 20% signals strong engagement in this pivotal Quebec riding, where a Liberal hold could secure Prime Minister Mark Carney's majority alongside two Toronto by-elections and recent floor-crossings. Carney campaigned with Auguste on April 10, boosting her incumbency edge, while Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet rallied for Sinclair-Desgagné. Nearly 50 candidates, including independents like Maxime Beaudoin, prompted write-in ballots, fragmenting protest votes and favoring frontrunners.

A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$152,000
End Date
Apr 13, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Terrebone By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tatiana Auguste" at 67%, followed by "Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Terrebone By-Election Winner" has generated $152K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Terrebone By-Election Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Terrebone By-Election Winner" is "Tatiana Auguste" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Terrebone By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.