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Elections·Peru

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

Market icon
Elections·Peru

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

Alfonso López Chau 26.1%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 22.5%

Jorge Nieto 21.9%

Ricardo Belmont 17.1%

Polymarket

$10,257 Vol.

Alfonso López Chau 26.1%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 22.5%

Jorge Nieto 21.9%

Ricardo Belmont 17.1%

Polymarket

$10,257 Vol.

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Alfonso López Chau

$221 Vol.

21%

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Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$272 Vol.

23%

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Jorge Nieto

$315 Vol.

19%

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Ricardo Belmont

$260 Vol.

17%

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Rafael López Aliaga

$265 Vol.

16%

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José Luna

$251 Vol.

13%

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César Acuña

$206 Vol.

10%

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Fernando Olivera

$354 Vol.

10%

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Carlos Espá

$211 Vol.

8%

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Carlos Álvarez

$568 Vol.

12%

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Vladimir Cerrón

$178 Vol.

6%

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Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

$207 Vol.

6%

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Wolfgang Grozo

$202 Vol.

5%

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George Forsyth

$202 Vol.

5%

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Fiorella Molinelli

$192 Vol.

5%

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Enrique Valderrama

$1,932 Vol.

4%

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José Williams

$2,927 Vol.

4%

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Keiko Fujimori

$233 Vol.

3%

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Mesías Guevara

$378 Vol.

2%

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Roberto Chiabra

$194 Vol.

2%

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Marisol Pérez Tello

$217 Vol.

2%

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Yonhy Lescano

$263 Vol.

2%

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Mario Vizcarra

$209 Vol.

8%

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)In Peru's fragmented first-round presidential election set for April 12, trader consensus favors Roberto Sánchez Palomino for fourth place at 23.6% implied probability, driven by his climb to 9% in Ipsos' April 1-2 simulacro—fourth behind Keiko Fujimori (19%), Carlos Álvarez (12%), and Rafael López Aliaga (11%)—bolstered by left-leaning rural gains. Alfonso López Chau (22%) and Jorge Nieto (19%) trail closely amid centre-left vote splitting, high undecided rates (20-30%), and regional divides like Nieto's southern strength. The 35-candidate field keeps the mid-pack volatile; final turnout in battlegrounds such as Lima, unexpected endorsements, or scandals could tip the balance before resolution based on official National Elections Jury results.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$10,257
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)In Peru's fragmented first-round presidential election set for April 12, trader consensus favors Roberto Sánchez Palomino for fourth place at 23.6% implied probability, driven by his climb to 9% in Ipsos' April 1-2 simulacro—fourth behind Keiko Fujimori (19%), Carlos Álvarez (12%), and Rafael López Aliaga (11%)—bolstered by left-leaning rural gains. Alfonso López Chau (22%) and Jorge Nieto (19%) trail closely amid centre-left vote splitting, high undecided rates (20-30%), and regional divides like Nieto's southern strength. The 35-candidate field keeps the mid-pack volatile; final turnout in battlegrounds such as Lima, unexpected endorsements, or scandals could tip the balance before resolution based on official National Elections Jury results.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$10,257
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Related

Market icon

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

67%
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Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

22%
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Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

29%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Roberto Sánchez Palomino" at 23%, followed by "Alfonso López Chau" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" has generated $10.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" is "Roberto Sánchez Palomino" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alfonso López Chau" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.