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Politics·Global Elections

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Carlos Álvarez 22%

Rafael López Aliaga 21.4%

Ricardo Belmont 18.4%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 7.8%

Polymarket

$36,125 Vol.

Carlos Álvarez 22%

Rafael López Aliaga 21.4%

Ricardo Belmont 18.4%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 7.8%

Polymarket

$36,125 Vol.

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Carlos Álvarez

$2,473 Vol.

22%

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Rafael López Aliaga

$2,102 Vol.

21%

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Ricardo Belmont

$1,515 Vol.

18%

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Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$2,699 Vol.

8%

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Alfonso López Chau

$1,568 Vol.

7%

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Keiko Fujimori

$2,487 Vol.

6%

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Vladimir Cerrón

$1,241 Vol.

4%

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Enrique Valderrama

$862 Vol.

2%

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Jorge Nieto

$2,044 Vol.

1%

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Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

$1,656 Vol.

1%

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George Forsyth

$3,181 Vol.

1%

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Mesías Guevara

$1,142 Vol.

1%

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José Williams

$1,333 Vol.

1%

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Fernando Olivera

$1,486 Vol.

1%

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Wolfgang Grozo

$1,093 Vol.

1%

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José Luna

$994 Vol.

1%

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Marisol Pérez Tello

$1,462 Vol.

1%

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César Acuña

$812 Vol.

<1%

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Roberto Chiabra

$1,193 Vol.

<1%

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Mario Vizcarra

$773 Vol.

<1%

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Carlos Espá

$2,098 Vol.

<1%

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Fiorella Molinelli

$1,040 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Yonhy Lescano

$871 Vol.

<1%

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)With Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election hours away, trader consensus pins third-place odds on a razor-thin contest among Carlos Álvarez (21.5%), Rafael López Aliaga (21.4%), and Ricardo Belmont (18.5%), mirroring fragmented final intention polls from Ipsos and Datum showing them clustered at 10-12% behind narrow leaders like Keiko Fujimori. Álvarez's recent surge stems from teacher union mobilization and anti-establishment fervor amid corruption fatigue; López Aliaga holds via hardline pledges on crime and Venezuelan migration; Belmont gains from populist TV charisma. High undecideds (25-30%) and 35-candidate splintering keep dynamics fluid—late turnout swings in Lima or rural south, or final rally momentum, could decisively separate contenders before top two advance to the June runoff.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$36,125
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)With Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election hours away, trader consensus pins third-place odds on a razor-thin contest among Carlos Álvarez (21.5%), Rafael López Aliaga (21.4%), and Ricardo Belmont (18.5%), mirroring fragmented final intention polls from Ipsos and Datum showing them clustered at 10-12% behind narrow leaders like Keiko Fujimori. Álvarez's recent surge stems from teacher union mobilization and anti-establishment fervor amid corruption fatigue; López Aliaga holds via hardline pledges on crime and Venezuelan migration; Belmont gains from populist TV charisma. High undecideds (25-30%) and 35-candidate splintering keep dynamics fluid—late turnout swings in Lima or rural south, or final rally momentum, could decisively separate contenders before top two advance to the June runoff.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$36,125
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Related

Market icon

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

67%
Market icon

Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

29%
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Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

22%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Carlos Álvarez" at 22%, followed by "Rafael López Aliaga" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" has generated $36.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" is "Carlos Álvarez" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rafael López Aliaga" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.