Kerala voters delivered a record 78.27% turnout on April 9 for the 140-seat Legislative Assembly election, surpassing 2021 levels, with counting scheduled for May 4 amid a high-stakes bipolar contest between incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) seeking a rare third term under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) pushing for a comeback. Pre-poll surveys showed razor-thin margins with overlapping projections—LDF at 57–71 seats and UDF at 58–81 in key polls like Matrize-IANS and Manorama-C Voter—yet trader consensus prices CPI(M) at 67% implied probability, attributing the edge to LDF's robust cadre network, welfare delivery track record, and southern strongholds despite UDF's anti-incumbency campaign alleging LDF-BJP pacts and internal LDF dissident challenges. BJP-led NDA remains sidelined at negligible odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
CPI(M) 66%
INC 30%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$264,586 Vol.
$264,586 Vol.
Apr 9, 2026
CPI(M)
66%
INC
30%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
RSP
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
BJP
<1%
NCP
<1%
IUML
<1%
CPI(M) 66%
INC 30%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$264,586 Vol.
$264,586 Vol.
Apr 9, 2026
CPI(M)
$27,800 Vol.
66%
INC
$29,285 Vol.
30%
BSP
$12,297 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$28,084 Vol.
<1%
JD(S)
$23,048 Vol.
<1%
RSP
$13,090 Vol.
<1%
KEC(M)
$13,613 Vol.
<1%
BJP
$57,587 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$45,879 Vol.
<1%
IUML
$13,903 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Kerala voters delivered a record 78.27% turnout on April 9 for the 140-seat Legislative Assembly election, surpassing 2021 levels, with counting scheduled for May 4 amid a high-stakes bipolar contest between incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) seeking a rare third term under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) pushing for a comeback. Pre-poll surveys showed razor-thin margins with overlapping projections—LDF at 57–71 seats and UDF at 58–81 in key polls like Matrize-IANS and Manorama-C Voter—yet trader consensus prices CPI(M) at 67% implied probability, attributing the edge to LDF's robust cadre network, welfare delivery track record, and southern strongholds despite UDF's anti-incumbency campaign alleging LDF-BJP pacts and internal LDF dissident challenges. BJP-led NDA remains sidelined at negligible odds.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$264,586End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Kerala voters delivered a record 78.27% turnout on April 9 for the 140-seat Legislative Assembly election, surpassing 2021 levels, with counting scheduled for May 4 amid a high-stakes bipolar contest between incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) seeking a rare third term under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) pushing for a comeback. Pre-poll surveys showed razor-thin margins with overlapping projections—LDF at 57–71 seats and UDF at 58–81 in key polls like Matrize-IANS and Manorama-C Voter—yet trader consensus prices CPI(M) at 67% implied probability, attributing the edge to LDF's robust cadre network, welfare delivery track record, and southern strongholds despite UDF's anti-incumbency campaign alleging LDF-BJP pacts and internal LDF dissident challenges. BJP-led NDA remains sidelined at negligible odds.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$264,586End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kerala voters delivered a record 78.27% turnout on April 9 for the 140-seat Legislative Assembly election, surpassing 2021 levels, with counting scheduled for May 4 amid a high-stakes bipolar contest between incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) seeking a rare third term under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) pushing for a comeback. Pre-poll surveys showed razor-thin margins with overlapping projections—LDF at 57–71 seats and UDF at 58–81 in key polls like Matrize-IANS and Manorama-C Voter—yet trader consensus prices CPI(M) at 67% implied probability, attributing the edge to LDF's robust cadre network, welfare delivery track record, and southern strongholds despite UDF's anti-incumbency campaign alleging LDF-BJP pacts and internal LDF dissident challenges. BJP-led NDA remains sidelined at negligible odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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