Trader consensus favors 5-9 posts from the @khamenei_ir account at 44.5% implied probability during April 10-17, closely trailed by 45-49 and other mid-ranges, reflecting uncertainty in posting cadence amid Iran's leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes. Recent weeks averaged 2-4 archival quotes from the martyred leader, reposted to align with ongoing ceasefire tensions since April 7 and Strait of Hormuz statements, with zero posts on April 10 so far. New leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei's reported injuries and limited public activity fuel bets on modest upticks, while a surge could stem from diplomatic escalations or his first major address; prolonged seclusion might drop volume below 5. This keeps the race tight as traders weigh institutional continuity against transition risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts April 10 - April 17, 2026?
Khamenei # posts April 10 - April 17, 2026?
25-29 38%
<5 11%
10-14 10%
60+ 2.9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 17, 2026
<5
17%
5-9
45%
10-14
27%
15-19
34%
20-24
29%
25-29
38%
30-34
28%
35-39
37%
40-44
20%
45-49
44%
50-54
42%
55-59
12%
60+
3%
25-29 38%
<5 11%
10-14 10%
60+ 2.9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 17, 2026
<5
$501 Vol.
17%
5-9
$22 Vol.
45%
10-14
$22 Vol.
27%
15-19
$22 Vol.
34%
20-24
$37 Vol.
29%
25-29
$170 Vol.
38%
30-34
$43 Vol.
28%
35-39
$48 Vol.
37%
40-44
$63 Vol.
20%
45-49
$113 Vol.
44%
50-54
$113 Vol.
42%
55-59
$174 Vol.
12%
60+
$544 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 10, 12:00 PM ET and April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus favors 5-9 posts from the @khamenei_ir account at 44.5% implied probability during April 10-17, closely trailed by 45-49 and other mid-ranges, reflecting uncertainty in posting cadence amid Iran's leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes. Recent weeks averaged 2-4 archival quotes from the martyred leader, reposted to align with ongoing ceasefire tensions since April 7 and Strait of Hormuz statements, with zero posts on April 10 so far. New leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei's reported injuries and limited public activity fuel bets on modest upticks, while a surge could stem from diplomatic escalations or his first major address; prolonged seclusion might drop volume below 5. This keeps the race tight as traders weigh institutional continuity against transition risks.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 10, 12:00 PM ET and April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$1,873End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 10, 12:00 PM ET and April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus favors 5-9 posts from the @khamenei_ir account at 44.5% implied probability during April 10-17, closely trailed by 45-49 and other mid-ranges, reflecting uncertainty in posting cadence amid Iran's leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes. Recent weeks averaged 2-4 archival quotes from the martyred leader, reposted to align with ongoing ceasefire tensions since April 7 and Strait of Hormuz statements, with zero posts on April 10 so far. New leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei's reported injuries and limited public activity fuel bets on modest upticks, while a surge could stem from diplomatic escalations or his first major address; prolonged seclusion might drop volume below 5. This keeps the race tight as traders weigh institutional continuity against transition risks.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 10, 12:00 PM ET and April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,873End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 5-9 posts from the @khamenei_ir account at 44.5% implied probability during April 10-17, closely trailed by 45-49 and other mid-ranges, reflecting uncertainty in posting cadence amid Iran's leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes. Recent weeks averaged 2-4 archival quotes from the martyred leader, reposted to align with ongoing ceasefire tensions since April 7 and Strait of Hormuz statements, with zero posts on April 10 so far. New leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei's reported injuries and limited public activity fuel bets on modest upticks, while a surge could stem from diplomatic escalations or his first major address; prolonged seclusion might drop volume below 5. This keeps the race tight as traders weigh institutional continuity against transition risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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