Recent polls, including Ideia (April 3-7) showing Lula da Silva at 40.4% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 37% and Paraná Pesquisas (late March) with Lula at 41.3% to 37.8%, reflect trader consensus on a narrow Lula first-round victory under 5 percentage points, pricing it at 40%. Flávio's <5% margin outcome at 19% captures his surge as the consolidated right-wing challenger, leveraging his father's endorsement amid Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility, narrowing gaps from 5-6 points in mid-March surveys like AtlasIntel. Low support for Tarcísio de Freitas (3-6.5%), Renan Santos (3-4%), and others stems from right-wing unity post-Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal. Runoff ties in simulations underscore first-round volatility ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 40%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 19%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 8.1%
$215,679 Vol.
$215,679 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
6%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
4%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
40%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
19%
Renan Santos Victory
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
2%
Other
7%
Lula da Silva <5% 40%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 19%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 8.1%
$215,679 Vol.
$215,679 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,721 Vol.
6%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$1,512 Vol.
4%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$5,226 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,788 Vol.
40%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$956 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$1,046 Vol.
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$2,002 Vol.
19%
Renan Santos Victory
$196,897 Vol.
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$627 Vol.
1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$884 Vol.
2%
Other
$1,019 Vol.
7%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Ideia (April 3-7) showing Lula da Silva at 40.4% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 37% and Paraná Pesquisas (late March) with Lula at 41.3% to 37.8%, reflect trader consensus on a narrow Lula first-round victory under 5 percentage points, pricing it at 40%. Flávio's <5% margin outcome at 19% captures his surge as the consolidated right-wing challenger, leveraging his father's endorsement amid Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility, narrowing gaps from 5-6 points in mid-March surveys like AtlasIntel. Low support for Tarcísio de Freitas (3-6.5%), Renan Santos (3-4%), and others stems from right-wing unity post-Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal. Runoff ties in simulations underscore first-round volatility ahead of the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$215,679End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Ideia (April 3-7) showing Lula da Silva at 40.4% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 37% and Paraná Pesquisas (late March) with Lula at 41.3% to 37.8%, reflect trader consensus on a narrow Lula first-round victory under 5 percentage points, pricing it at 40%. Flávio's <5% margin outcome at 19% captures his surge as the consolidated right-wing challenger, leveraging his father's endorsement amid Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility, narrowing gaps from 5-6 points in mid-March surveys like AtlasIntel. Low support for Tarcísio de Freitas (3-6.5%), Renan Santos (3-4%), and others stems from right-wing unity post-Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal. Runoff ties in simulations underscore first-round volatility ahead of the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$215,679End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls, including Ideia (April 3-7) showing Lula da Silva at 40.4% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 37% and Paraná Pesquisas (late March) with Lula at 41.3% to 37.8%, reflect trader consensus on a narrow Lula first-round victory under 5 percentage points, pricing it at 40%. Flávio's <5% margin outcome at 19% captures his surge as the consolidated right-wing challenger, leveraging his father's endorsement amid Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility, narrowing gaps from 5-6 points in mid-March surveys like AtlasIntel. Low support for Tarcísio de Freitas (3-6.5%), Renan Santos (3-4%), and others stems from right-wing unity post-Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal. Runoff ties in simulations underscore first-round volatility ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
64%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
37%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
12%
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