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Climate & Science·Science

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Market icon
Climate & Science·Science

Natural Disaster in 2026?

29% chance
Polymarket

$198,076 Vol.

29% chance
Polymarket

$198,076 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through April despite routine seismic and volcanic activity. USGS data confirms no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes worldwide—the largest being a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1—well below the rare threshold seen roughly once per decade. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports 47 eruptions to date, all VEI ≤2, far from a VEI ≥6 event last recorded in 1991 at Pinatubo. No NASA-verified 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts have occurred, and National Hurricane Center records show no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US, with ongoing La Niña conditions per NOAA suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclone formation ahead of the June-November season. Upcoming NOAA seasonal forecasts in May could shift odds if El Niño risks rise.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$198,076
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through April despite routine seismic and volcanic activity. USGS data confirms no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes worldwide—the largest being a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1—well below the rare threshold seen roughly once per decade. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports 47 eruptions to date, all VEI ≤2, far from a VEI ≥6 event last recorded in 1991 at Pinatubo. No NASA-verified 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts have occurred, and National Hurricane Center records show no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US, with ongoing La Niña conditions per NOAA suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclone formation ahead of the June-November season. Upcoming NOAA seasonal forecasts in May could shift odds if El Niño risks rise.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$198,076
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

Related

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Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

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10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

4%
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9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

10%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Natural Disaster in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 28% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 28¢, the market collectively assigns a 28% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Natural Disaster in 2026?" has generated $198.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 31, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Natural Disaster in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Natural Disaster in 2026?" is 28% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 28% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Natural Disaster in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.