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Politics·Remove

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Market icon
Politics·Remove

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

27% chance
Polymarket

$20,510 Vol.

27% chance
Polymarket

$20,510 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Justice Alexandre de Moraes remains entrenched on Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF), sustaining trader consensus at 73% against his removal, as recent scandals—including alleged WhatsApp exchanges with banker Daniel Lustosa in the Banco Master fraud probe and multimillion-real contracts with his wife's law firm—have failed to trigger impeachment proceedings despite opposition outcry. In late March 2026, Moraes issued a high-profile ruling converting former President Jair Bolsonaro's prison sentence to 90 days of house arrest for health reasons, underscoring his continued authority. Impeachment requires a Senate commission approval followed by a two-thirds vote, a threshold unmet amid President Lula da Silva's coalition control; no procedural advances occurred in the past week, with debunked resignation rumors reinforcing institutional barriers to ouster before his term ends in 2030.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$20,510
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Justice Alexandre de Moraes remains entrenched on Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF), sustaining trader consensus at 73% against his removal, as recent scandals—including alleged WhatsApp exchanges with banker Daniel Lustosa in the Banco Master fraud probe and multimillion-real contracts with his wife's law firm—have failed to trigger impeachment proceedings despite opposition outcry. In late March 2026, Moraes issued a high-profile ruling converting former President Jair Bolsonaro's prison sentence to 90 days of house arrest for health reasons, underscoring his continued authority. Impeachment requires a Senate commission approval followed by a two-thirds vote, a threshold unmet amid President Lula da Silva's coalition control; no procedural advances occurred in the past week, with debunked resignation rumors reinforcing institutional barriers to ouster before his term ends in 2030.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$20,510
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 27% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 27¢, the market collectively assigns a 27% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?" has generated $20.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?" is 27% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 27% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.