Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 39.1%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 5.1%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$543,385,138 Vol.

J.D. Vance 39.1%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 5.1%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$543,385,138 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$11,700,869 Vol.

39%

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Marco Rubio

$7,560,527 Vol.

22%

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Tucker Carlson

$8,471,965 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$12,258,371 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,921,158 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$3,213,796 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,444,599 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,762,918 Vol.

1%

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Rand Paul

$16,701,243 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$11,229,432 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$13,153,278 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,906,449 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$26,414,940 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,814,603 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,278,918 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,846,126 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,769,873 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$16,044,203 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,695,111 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,575,282 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,959,851 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,633,020 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,990,725 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$25,072,564 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$3,151,062 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,940,296 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$16,310,949 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$24,635,482 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$3,012,814 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$35,739,550 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,711,855 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$13,766,559 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$30,557,970 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$29,859,861 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$37,283,611 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. commands trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his successful rollout of Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) reforms, including 22% insulin price reductions, $3 billion in Medicare fraud savings, and a major federal nutrition policy reset that broadens his appeal beyond traditional GOP voters. Vice President J.D. Vance trails closely at 39.1% as the perceived incumbent heir apparent, but recent reports of major donors preferring Marco Rubio—now at 21.6%—have eroded his lead amid questions over base enthusiasm. This tight top-three contest reflects an open primary field shaped by Trump administration performance and donor signals, with 2026 midterms, official announcements, and endorsements poised to create separation.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$543,385,138
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. commands trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his successful rollout of Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) reforms, including 22% insulin price reductions, $3 billion in Medicare fraud savings, and a major federal nutrition policy reset that broadens his appeal beyond traditional GOP voters. Vice President J.D. Vance trails closely at 39.1% as the perceived incumbent heir apparent, but recent reports of major donors preferring Marco Rubio—now at 21.6%—have eroded his lead amid questions over base enthusiasm. This tight top-three contest reflects an open primary field shaped by Trump administration performance and donor signals, with 2026 midterms, official announcements, and endorsements poised to create separation.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$543,385,138
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $543.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.