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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 39.0%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 5.1%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$543,164,772 Vol.

J.D. Vance 39.0%

Marco Rubio 21.6%

Tucker Carlson 5.1%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$543,164,772 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$11,700,275 Vol.

39%

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Marco Rubio

$7,559,640 Vol.

22%

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Tucker Carlson

$8,431,106 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$12,256,671 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,919,651 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$3,213,741 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,444,041 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,762,918 Vol.

1%

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Rand Paul

$16,699,758 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$11,229,032 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$13,152,938 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,906,449 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$26,399,636 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,814,603 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,275,842 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,843,580 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,764,948 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$16,030,197 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,686,097 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,570,143 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,952,478 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,625,225 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,982,232 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$25,067,537 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$3,148,062 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,932,126 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$16,272,526 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$24,631,837 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$3,007,132 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$35,732,157 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,705,910 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$13,762,585 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$30,557,197 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$29,848,912 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$37,279,180 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow 2028 Republican presidential nominee favorite at 49%, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (39%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (22%), reflecting bets on RFK Jr.'s broad appeal from MAHA initiatives like school lunch reforms and vaccine policy shifts, despite traditional polls showing him at 3-6% and Vance dominating with 40-53% in recent CPAC and Echelon surveys. Vance's VP incumbency and consistent straw poll leads position him as heir apparent, while Rubio's hawkish stance amid ongoing Iran conflict has elevated his profile since early March. With Trump term-limited, midterms loom as a key test for administration figures' paths to primary contention.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$543,164,772
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow 2028 Republican presidential nominee favorite at 49%, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (39%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (22%), reflecting bets on RFK Jr.'s broad appeal from MAHA initiatives like school lunch reforms and vaccine policy shifts, despite traditional polls showing him at 3-6% and Vance dominating with 40-53% in recent CPAC and Echelon surveys. Vance's VP incumbency and consistent straw poll leads position him as heir apparent, while Rubio's hawkish stance amid ongoing Iran conflict has elevated his profile since early March. With Trump term-limited, midterms loom as a key test for administration figures' paths to primary contention.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$543,164,772
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $543.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.