Trader consensus favors "No" at 56.5% implied probability for a named storm in the Atlantic basin before June 1, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) April 11 Tropical Weather Discussion confirming no tropical cyclones or disturbances, with regular outlooks resuming May 15. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast predicts below-normal 2026 activity—13 named storms total—citing weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño, which will elevate vertical wind shear and hinder development despite mixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs warmer westward, cooler centrally). Historically rare pre-season named storms (winds ≥39 mph) require SSTs exceeding 26.5°C and low shear, both currently unfavorable; watch May for any subtropical signals amid model uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNamed storm forms before hurricane season?
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$330,397 Vol.
$330,397 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$330,397 Vol.
$330,397 Vol.
May 31, 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus favors "No" at 56.5% implied probability for a named storm in the Atlantic basin before June 1, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) April 11 Tropical Weather Discussion confirming no tropical cyclones or disturbances, with regular outlooks resuming May 15. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast predicts below-normal 2026 activity—13 named storms total—citing weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño, which will elevate vertical wind shear and hinder development despite mixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs warmer westward, cooler centrally). Historically rare pre-season named storms (winds ≥39 mph) require SSTs exceeding 26.5°C and low shear, both currently unfavorable; watch May for any subtropical signals amid model uncertainty.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$330,397End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus favors "No" at 56.5% implied probability for a named storm in the Atlantic basin before June 1, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) April 11 Tropical Weather Discussion confirming no tropical cyclones or disturbances, with regular outlooks resuming May 15. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast predicts below-normal 2026 activity—13 named storms total—citing weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño, which will elevate vertical wind shear and hinder development despite mixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs warmer westward, cooler centrally). Historically rare pre-season named storms (winds ≥39 mph) require SSTs exceeding 26.5°C and low shear, both currently unfavorable; watch May for any subtropical signals amid model uncertainty.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$330,397End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 56.5% implied probability for a named storm in the Atlantic basin before June 1, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) April 11 Tropical Weather Discussion confirming no tropical cyclones or disturbances, with regular outlooks resuming May 15. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast predicts below-normal 2026 activity—13 named storms total—citing weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño, which will elevate vertical wind shear and hinder development despite mixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs warmer westward, cooler centrally). Historically rare pre-season named storms (winds ≥39 mph) require SSTs exceeding 26.5°C and low shear, both currently unfavorable; watch May for any subtropical signals amid model uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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