With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus prices TISZA at 74.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting recent polls showing the centre-right challenger party, led by Péter Magyar, consistently ahead of incumbent Fidesz-KDNP among decided voters—50% to 37% per a Median survey cited April 9, and widening leads in aggregates like PolitPro (TISZA 49%, Fidesz 41%). Momentum built from massive opposition rallies in late March and public fatigue after 16 years of Fidesz governance has eroded the ruling coalition's edge, despite mixed polling from government-aligned firms. Under the mixed system of 106 single-member districts and proportional list seats, TISZA seat projections exceed the 100-seat majority threshold. Fragmented opposition parties trail far behind. Late undecided voters (around 20%) and turnout could sway the closely watched outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHungary Parliamentary Election Winner
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner
TISZA 75%
Fidesz-KDNP 26%
DK <1%
LMP <1%
$60,105,874 Vol.
$60,105,874 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
TISZA
75%
Fidesz-KDNP
26%
DK
<1%
LMP
<1%
MSZP
<1%
Momentum
<1%
Mi Hazánk
<1%
Párbeszéd
<1%
Jobbik
<1%
KDNP
<1%
TISZA 75%
Fidesz-KDNP 26%
DK <1%
LMP <1%
$60,105,874 Vol.
$60,105,874 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
TISZA
$2,800,502 Vol.
75%
Fidesz-KDNP
$2,866,711 Vol.
26%
DK
$7,622,319 Vol.
<1%
LMP
$15,376,376 Vol.
<1%
MSZP
$580,307 Vol.
<1%
Momentum
$973,954 Vol.
<1%
Mi Hazánk
$1,581,437 Vol.
<1%
Párbeszéd
$7,136,480 Vol.
<1%
Jobbik
$16,547,423 Vol.
<1%
KDNP
$4,620,627 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus prices TISZA at 74.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting recent polls showing the centre-right challenger party, led by Péter Magyar, consistently ahead of incumbent Fidesz-KDNP among decided voters—50% to 37% per a Median survey cited April 9, and widening leads in aggregates like PolitPro (TISZA 49%, Fidesz 41%). Momentum built from massive opposition rallies in late March and public fatigue after 16 years of Fidesz governance has eroded the ruling coalition's edge, despite mixed polling from government-aligned firms. Under the mixed system of 106 single-member districts and proportional list seats, TISZA seat projections exceed the 100-seat majority threshold. Fragmented opposition parties trail far behind. Late undecided voters (around 20%) and turnout could sway the closely watched outcome.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ET
Volume
$60,105,874End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus prices TISZA at 74.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting recent polls showing the centre-right challenger party, led by Péter Magyar, consistently ahead of incumbent Fidesz-KDNP among decided voters—50% to 37% per a Median survey cited April 9, and widening leads in aggregates like PolitPro (TISZA 49%, Fidesz 41%). Momentum built from massive opposition rallies in late March and public fatigue after 16 years of Fidesz governance has eroded the ruling coalition's edge, despite mixed polling from government-aligned firms. Under the mixed system of 106 single-member districts and proportional list seats, TISZA seat projections exceed the 100-seat majority threshold. Fragmented opposition parties trail far behind. Late undecided voters (around 20%) and turnout could sway the closely watched outcome.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volume
$60,105,874End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus prices TISZA at 74.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting recent polls showing the centre-right challenger party, led by Péter Magyar, consistently ahead of incumbent Fidesz-KDNP among decided voters—50% to 37% per a Median survey cited April 9, and widening leads in aggregates like PolitPro (TISZA 49%, Fidesz 41%). Momentum built from massive opposition rallies in late March and public fatigue after 16 years of Fidesz governance has eroded the ruling coalition's edge, despite mixed polling from government-aligned firms. Under the mixed system of 106 single-member districts and proportional list seats, TISZA seat projections exceed the 100-seat majority threshold. Fragmented opposition parties trail far behind. Late undecided voters (around 20%) and turnout could sway the closely watched outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
74%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
65%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
95%
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