Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 30.5% ("No" at 69.5%), reflecting deep territorial disputes and persistent military escalation despite recent diplomatic overtures. Russian drone strikes hit Sumy and Odesa on April 10, even as Putin proposed a brief Orthodox Easter ceasefire, highlighting de-escalation challenges. March negotiations stalled amid Russia's spring offensive and demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, with Moscow weighing an exit from U.S.-brokered talks. Zelensky aides' claims of nearing an agreement remain unverified amid historical failures like the February Geneva meetings, fostering trader skepticism over timely resolution amid ongoing frontline advances and unresolved security guarantees.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$198,469 Vol.
$198,469 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$198,469 Vol.
$198,469 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 30.5% ("No" at 69.5%), reflecting deep territorial disputes and persistent military escalation despite recent diplomatic overtures. Russian drone strikes hit Sumy and Odesa on April 10, even as Putin proposed a brief Orthodox Easter ceasefire, highlighting de-escalation challenges. March negotiations stalled amid Russia's spring offensive and demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, with Moscow weighing an exit from U.S.-brokered talks. Zelensky aides' claims of nearing an agreement remain unverified amid historical failures like the February Geneva meetings, fostering trader skepticism over timely resolution amid ongoing frontline advances and unresolved security guarantees.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$198,469End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 30.5% ("No" at 69.5%), reflecting deep territorial disputes and persistent military escalation despite recent diplomatic overtures. Russian drone strikes hit Sumy and Odesa on April 10, even as Putin proposed a brief Orthodox Easter ceasefire, highlighting de-escalation challenges. March negotiations stalled amid Russia's spring offensive and demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, with Moscow weighing an exit from U.S.-brokered talks. Zelensky aides' claims of nearing an agreement remain unverified amid historical failures like the February Geneva meetings, fostering trader skepticism over timely resolution amid ongoing frontline advances and unresolved security guarantees.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$198,469End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 30.5% ("No" at 69.5%), reflecting deep territorial disputes and persistent military escalation despite recent diplomatic overtures. Russian drone strikes hit Sumy and Odesa on April 10, even as Putin proposed a brief Orthodox Easter ceasefire, highlighting de-escalation challenges. March negotiations stalled amid Russia's spring offensive and demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, with Moscow weighing an exit from U.S.-brokered talks. Zelensky aides' claims of nearing an agreement remain unverified amid historical failures like the February Geneva meetings, fostering trader skepticism over timely resolution amid ongoing frontline advances and unresolved security guarantees.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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