Russia-Ukraine trader consensus prices a ceasefire by end of 2027 at 53.5% Yes, reflecting a closely contested outlook amid war fatigue, U.S.-mediated peace talks, and recent de-escalation signals like the 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce agreed on April 10, 2026, despite Kyiv's doubts over Moscow's adherence. Multiple negotiation rounds since January—hosted in Geneva and Abu Dhabi—involving the Trump administration have yielded no breakthroughs, with Russia citing battlefield gains in Donetsk and Ukraine rejecting territorial concessions or temporary halts without withdrawal. Balancing factors include attrition risks, potential U.S. aid shifts pre-2026 midterms, and security guarantee disputes; odds could tip toward Yes on extended truces or concessions, or No via escalation or stalled diplomacy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
$17,096 Vol.
$17,096 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
$17,096 Vol.
$17,096 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Russia-Ukraine trader consensus prices a ceasefire by end of 2027 at 53.5% Yes, reflecting a closely contested outlook amid war fatigue, U.S.-mediated peace talks, and recent de-escalation signals like the 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce agreed on April 10, 2026, despite Kyiv's doubts over Moscow's adherence. Multiple negotiation rounds since January—hosted in Geneva and Abu Dhabi—involving the Trump administration have yielded no breakthroughs, with Russia citing battlefield gains in Donetsk and Ukraine rejecting territorial concessions or temporary halts without withdrawal. Balancing factors include attrition risks, potential U.S. aid shifts pre-2026 midterms, and security guarantee disputes; odds could tip toward Yes on extended truces or concessions, or No via escalation or stalled diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$17,096End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Russia-Ukraine trader consensus prices a ceasefire by end of 2027 at 53.5% Yes, reflecting a closely contested outlook amid war fatigue, U.S.-mediated peace talks, and recent de-escalation signals like the 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce agreed on April 10, 2026, despite Kyiv's doubts over Moscow's adherence. Multiple negotiation rounds since January—hosted in Geneva and Abu Dhabi—involving the Trump administration have yielded no breakthroughs, with Russia citing battlefield gains in Donetsk and Ukraine rejecting territorial concessions or temporary halts without withdrawal. Balancing factors include attrition risks, potential U.S. aid shifts pre-2026 midterms, and security guarantee disputes; odds could tip toward Yes on extended truces or concessions, or No via escalation or stalled diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$17,096End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia-Ukraine trader consensus prices a ceasefire by end of 2027 at 53.5% Yes, reflecting a closely contested outlook amid war fatigue, U.S.-mediated peace talks, and recent de-escalation signals like the 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce agreed on April 10, 2026, despite Kyiv's doubts over Moscow's adherence. Multiple negotiation rounds since January—hosted in Geneva and Abu Dhabi—involving the Trump administration have yielded no breakthroughs, with Russia citing battlefield gains in Donetsk and Ukraine rejecting territorial concessions or temporary halts without withdrawal. Balancing factors include attrition risks, potential U.S. aid shifts pre-2026 midterms, and security guarantee disputes; odds could tip toward Yes on extended truces or concessions, or No via escalation or stalled diplomacy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions