Trader consensus at 95.5% "No" on a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30 reflects sustained political stability under President Zelenskyy amid martial law, which suspends elections and centralizes authority. Recent Ukrainian military advances, including territorial gains reported in early April, alongside January reshuffles in the Armed Forces and security apparatus, have neutralized rivals and reinforced loyalty among key commanders, with no verified plots emerging in the past 30 days despite mobilization tensions and social media rumors of discontent. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) continues monitoring internal threats, as in prior thwarted schemes. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden battlefield collapses, failed ceasefire talks, or elite defections, though institutional controls and war focus make such escalation unlikely by deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Jun 30, 2026
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Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus at 95.5% "No" on a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30 reflects sustained political stability under President Zelenskyy amid martial law, which suspends elections and centralizes authority. Recent Ukrainian military advances, including territorial gains reported in early April, alongside January reshuffles in the Armed Forces and security apparatus, have neutralized rivals and reinforced loyalty among key commanders, with no verified plots emerging in the past 30 days despite mobilization tensions and social media rumors of discontent. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) continues monitoring internal threats, as in prior thwarted schemes. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden battlefield collapses, failed ceasefire talks, or elite defections, though institutional controls and war focus make such escalation unlikely by deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ET
Volume
$8,825End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus at 95.5% "No" on a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30 reflects sustained political stability under President Zelenskyy amid martial law, which suspends elections and centralizes authority. Recent Ukrainian military advances, including territorial gains reported in early April, alongside January reshuffles in the Armed Forces and security apparatus, have neutralized rivals and reinforced loyalty among key commanders, with no verified plots emerging in the past 30 days despite mobilization tensions and social media rumors of discontent. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) continues monitoring internal threats, as in prior thwarted schemes. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden battlefield collapses, failed ceasefire talks, or elite defections, though institutional controls and war focus make such escalation unlikely by deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,825End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus at 95.5% "No" on a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30 reflects sustained political stability under President Zelenskyy amid martial law, which suspends elections and centralizes authority. Recent Ukrainian military advances, including territorial gains reported in early April, alongside January reshuffles in the Armed Forces and security apparatus, have neutralized rivals and reinforced loyalty among key commanders, with no verified plots emerging in the past 30 days despite mobilization tensions and social media rumors of discontent. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) continues monitoring internal threats, as in prior thwarted schemes. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden battlefield collapses, failed ceasefire talks, or elite defections, though institutional controls and war focus make such escalation unlikely by deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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