Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, with "No" shares at 94%, driven by persistent frontline escalations and unresolved core disputes despite a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce last weekend. Putin ordered the halt across all fronts, reciprocated by Zelenskyy, but preceding Russian drone strikes on Sumy and Odesa highlighted fragility, as did mutual accusations of violations. US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier this year stalled over Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas territories—land Moscow partially holds—and Kyiv's insistence on NATO-like security guarantees. Kremlin spokesmen stress permanent peace terms over temporary halts, with no breakthroughs amid Russia's spring offensive advances, leaving slim odds for comprehensive de-escalation by month's end absent major diplomatic shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
$272,325 Vol.
$272,325 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$272,325 Vol.
$272,325 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, with "No" shares at 94%, driven by persistent frontline escalations and unresolved core disputes despite a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce last weekend. Putin ordered the halt across all fronts, reciprocated by Zelenskyy, but preceding Russian drone strikes on Sumy and Odesa highlighted fragility, as did mutual accusations of violations. US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier this year stalled over Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas territories—land Moscow partially holds—and Kyiv's insistence on NATO-like security guarantees. Kremlin spokesmen stress permanent peace terms over temporary halts, with no breakthroughs amid Russia's spring offensive advances, leaving slim odds for comprehensive de-escalation by month's end absent major diplomatic shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Volume
$272,325End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, with "No" shares at 94%, driven by persistent frontline escalations and unresolved core disputes despite a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce last weekend. Putin ordered the halt across all fronts, reciprocated by Zelenskyy, but preceding Russian drone strikes on Sumy and Odesa highlighted fragility, as did mutual accusations of violations. US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier this year stalled over Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas territories—land Moscow partially holds—and Kyiv's insistence on NATO-like security guarantees. Kremlin spokesmen stress permanent peace terms over temporary halts, with no breakthroughs amid Russia's spring offensive advances, leaving slim odds for comprehensive de-escalation by month's end absent major diplomatic shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$272,325End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, with "No" shares at 94%, driven by persistent frontline escalations and unresolved core disputes despite a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce last weekend. Putin ordered the halt across all fronts, reciprocated by Zelenskyy, but preceding Russian drone strikes on Sumy and Odesa highlighted fragility, as did mutual accusations of violations. US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier this year stalled over Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas territories—land Moscow partially holds—and Kyiv's insistence on NATO-like security guarantees. Kremlin spokesmen stress permanent peace terms over temporary halts, with no breakthroughs amid Russia's spring offensive advances, leaving slim odds for comprehensive de-escalation by month's end absent major diplomatic shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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