**No nuclear test by Russia has occurred, with traders pricing low probability amid sustained voluntary moratorium despite heightened rhetoric.** Russia last detonated a nuclear device in 1990 and withdrew from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, yet no seismic detections by the CTBTO or official claims have surfaced in the past 30 days. The February 2026 expiration of New START eliminated remaining US-Russia arms limits, prompting Kremlin denials of clandestine tests and vows to mirror any US resumption. Ongoing Ukraine military actions, including recent RS-24 Yars ICBM drills on April 2, fuel escalation signals without test preparations at Novaya Zemlya. Diplomatic talks or conflict intensification could alter trader consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,333,510 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
3%
September 30, 2026
10%
December 31, 2026
12%
$1,333,510 Vol.
June 30, 2026
$2,575 Vol.
3%
September 30, 2026
$1,257 Vol.
10%
December 31, 2026
$5,105 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**No nuclear test by Russia has occurred, with traders pricing low probability amid sustained voluntary moratorium despite heightened rhetoric.** Russia last detonated a nuclear device in 1990 and withdrew from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, yet no seismic detections by the CTBTO or official claims have surfaced in the past 30 days. The February 2026 expiration of New START eliminated remaining US-Russia arms limits, prompting Kremlin denials of clandestine tests and vows to mirror any US resumption. Ongoing Ukraine military actions, including recent RS-24 Yars ICBM drills on April 2, fuel escalation signals without test preparations at Novaya Zemlya. Diplomatic talks or conflict intensification could alter trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$1,333,510End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**No nuclear test by Russia has occurred, with traders pricing low probability amid sustained voluntary moratorium despite heightened rhetoric.** Russia last detonated a nuclear device in 1990 and withdrew from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, yet no seismic detections by the CTBTO or official claims have surfaced in the past 30 days. The February 2026 expiration of New START eliminated remaining US-Russia arms limits, prompting Kremlin denials of clandestine tests and vows to mirror any US resumption. Ongoing Ukraine military actions, including recent RS-24 Yars ICBM drills on April 2, fuel escalation signals without test preparations at Novaya Zemlya. Diplomatic talks or conflict intensification could alter trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,333,510End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No nuclear test by Russia has occurred, with traders pricing low probability amid sustained voluntary moratorium despite heightened rhetoric.** Russia last detonated a nuclear device in 1990 and withdrew from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, yet no seismic detections by the CTBTO or official claims have surfaced in the past 30 days. The February 2026 expiration of New START eliminated remaining US-Russia arms limits, prompting Kremlin denials of clandestine tests and vows to mirror any US resumption. Ongoing Ukraine military actions, including recent RS-24 Yars ICBM drills on April 2, fuel escalation signals without test preparations at Novaya Zemlya. Diplomatic talks or conflict intensification could alter trader consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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