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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 27.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9.0%

Jon Ossoff 6.8%

Kamala Harris 5.5%

Polymarket

$1,024,636,297 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 27.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9.0%

Jon Ossoff 6.8%

Kamala Harris 5.5%

Polymarket

$1,024,636,297 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$21,909,716 Vol.

27%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$11,205,571 Vol.

9%

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Jon Ossoff

$7,902,269 Vol.

7%

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Kamala Harris

$9,552,010 Vol.

6%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,667,129 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,976,572 Vol.

4%

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James Talarico

$8,090,005 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$15,692,511 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$12,611,125 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$9,823,370 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$13,095,423 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$8,417,118 Vol.

2%

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Michelle Obama

$22,360,777 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,771,762 Vol.

1%

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Ruben Gallego

$4,132,837 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$14,005,699 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,980,209 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$26,411,293 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$17,623,789 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,817,089 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,409,344 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$18,285,680 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$9,608,852 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$44,289,157 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$34,046,209 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$45,458,983 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$12,115,513 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$26,800,231 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$27,808,537 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$38,132,470 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$37,766,243 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,874,654 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$43,547,500 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$21,562,927 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$39,524,608 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$36,008,517 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$38,722,828 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$29,157,323 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$35,863,985 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$34,545,040 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$37,052,453 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$33,165,754 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$27,666,536 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$41,207,749 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 27.5% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his elevated national profile as a party leader following the 2024 election loss, bolstered by a recent April 2 insider survey naming him the best-positioned Democrat and consistent media engagements critiquing the Trump administration. The field remains wide open, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 9% buoyed by progressive enthusiasm despite moderate pushback against her wing, Sen. Jon Ossoff surging to 7% on youth appeal and Georgia incumbency, and former VP Kamala Harris fading to 6% amid post-loss baggage—contrasting polls where she leads hypotheticals at ~27%. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes for swing-state governors like Shapiro or Kelly, national polling shifts, and early endorsements ahead of primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,024,636,297
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 27.5% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his elevated national profile as a party leader following the 2024 election loss, bolstered by a recent April 2 insider survey naming him the best-positioned Democrat and consistent media engagements critiquing the Trump administration. The field remains wide open, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 9% buoyed by progressive enthusiasm despite moderate pushback against her wing, Sen. Jon Ossoff surging to 7% on youth appeal and Georgia incumbency, and former VP Kamala Harris fading to 6% amid post-loss baggage—contrasting polls where she leads hypotheticals at ~27%. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes for swing-state governors like Shapiro or Kelly, national polling shifts, and early endorsements ahead of primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,024,636,297
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 27%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $1 billion in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.