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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 27.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.8%

Jon Ossoff 6.8%

Kamala Harris 5.5%

Polymarket

$1,023,269,644 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 27.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.8%

Jon Ossoff 6.8%

Kamala Harris 5.5%

Polymarket

$1,023,269,644 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$21,830,856 Vol.

27%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$11,098,316 Vol.

9%

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Jon Ossoff

$7,899,773 Vol.

7%

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Kamala Harris

$9,539,029 Vol.

5%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,599,207 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,970,239 Vol.

4%

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Jon Stewart

$15,589,432 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$8,009,451 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$12,610,438 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$9,823,370 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$13,094,589 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$8,325,217 Vol.

2%

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Michelle Obama

$22,352,424 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,771,299 Vol.

1%

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Ruben Gallego

$4,130,161 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$14,004,131 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,911,927 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$17,553,587 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$26,398,888 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,816,428 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,407,994 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$18,281,811 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$9,608,422 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$44,261,776 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$34,029,269 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$45,425,615 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$12,103,356 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$26,780,278 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$27,771,346 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$38,082,496 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$37,721,371 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,839,240 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$43,494,364 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$21,520,204 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$39,486,496 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,990,729 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$38,681,460 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$29,131,197 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$35,854,873 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$34,527,115 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$37,044,176 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$33,146,375 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$27,593,804 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$41,172,939 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices California Governor Gavin Newsom as the frontrunner at 27.4% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his executive experience, national fundraising prowess, and visibility from recent book tours and visits to early primary states like New Hampshire. Recent polling, including a March California survey showing him leading Kamala Harris by 14 points at home, bolsters his position amid a fragmented field lacking a clear incumbent or dominant figure post-2024. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.8% on her progressive appeal and youth, while Harris at 5.5% faces skepticism despite her Friday remark considering another run. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, early endorsements, and fundraising tallies before primaries begin in Iowa and New Hampshire.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,023,269,644
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices California Governor Gavin Newsom as the frontrunner at 27.4% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his executive experience, national fundraising prowess, and visibility from recent book tours and visits to early primary states like New Hampshire. Recent polling, including a March California survey showing him leading Kamala Harris by 14 points at home, bolsters his position amid a fragmented field lacking a clear incumbent or dominant figure post-2024. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.8% on her progressive appeal and youth, while Harris at 5.5% faces skepticism despite her Friday remark considering another run. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, early endorsements, and fundraising tallies before primaries begin in Iowa and New Hampshire.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,023,269,644
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 27%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $1 billion in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.