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Economy·Big Tech

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

Market icon
Economy·Big Tech

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

$569,135 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$569,135 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

Tim Cook - Apple

$329,943 Vol.

27%

Market icon

Sam Altman - OpenAI

$68,986 Vol.

18%

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Brian Armstrong - Coinbase

$79,118 Vol.

16%

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Sundar Pichai - Google

$35,575 Vol.

13%

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Andy Jassy - Amazon

$16,916 Vol.

13%

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Dan Clancy - Twitch

$38,597 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability—27%—to Tim Cook departing as Apple CEO before year-end 2026, fueled by late-2025 reports from Financial Times and New York Times on accelerated succession planning, including potential successor John Ternus, despite Cook's March 17 Good Morning America interview firmly denying imminent retirement and affirming his passion for Apple. Broader AI-driven leadership upheaval in tech, with early-2026 exits at Adobe and others citing transformation pressures, heightens scrutiny on long-tenured executives like Cook (age 65), Sundar Pichai (14% odds), and Andy Jassy (13%). Sam Altman (19%) and Brian Armstrong (16%) face lower risks amid stable OpenAI and Coinbase trajectories, while Twitch's Dan Clancy (9%) reflects Amazon ownership uncertainties. Watch Apple's Q2 earnings in late April and WWDC in June for catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
Volume
$569,135
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability—27%—to Tim Cook departing as Apple CEO before year-end 2026, fueled by late-2025 reports from Financial Times and New York Times on accelerated succession planning, including potential successor John Ternus, despite Cook's March 17 Good Morning America interview firmly denying imminent retirement and affirming his passion for Apple. Broader AI-driven leadership upheaval in tech, with early-2026 exits at Adobe and others citing transformation pressures, heightens scrutiny on long-tenured executives like Cook (age 65), Sundar Pichai (14% odds), and Andy Jassy (13%). Sam Altman (19%) and Brian Armstrong (16%) face lower risks amid stable OpenAI and Coinbase trajectories, while Twitch's Dan Clancy (9%) reflects Amazon ownership uncertainties. Watch Apple's Q2 earnings in late April and WWDC in June for catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
Volume
$569,135
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

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Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which CEOs will be out before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tim Cook - Apple" at 27%, followed by "Sam Altman - OpenAI" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which CEOs will be out before 2027?" has generated $569.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which CEOs will be out before 2027?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which CEOs will be out before 2027?" is "Tim Cook - Apple" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sam Altman - OpenAI" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which CEOs will be out before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.