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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 18.8%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 9.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.5%

Polymarket

$514,708,312 Vol.

JD Vance 18.8%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 9.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.5%

Polymarket

$514,708,312 Vol.

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JD Vance

$10,076,138 Vol.

19%

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Gavin Newsom

$13,180,628 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,918,611 Vol.

9%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,703,304 Vol.

5%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,427,745 Vol.

4%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,852,828 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,926,918 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,912,564 Vol.

2%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,767,090 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,153,194 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,833,031 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$17,411,391 Vol.

1%

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JB Pritzker

$10,806,482 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$6,034,893 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$4,339,824 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,742,433 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,598,372 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$8,478,269 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$20,755,568 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,532,560 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,790,793 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,578,348 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,442,532 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$6,613,269 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$29,513,879 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$9,091,083 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,705,008 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$17,484,840 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$6,512,013 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$39,378,555 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$6,373,392 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,954,794 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$4,271,926 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$30,900,337 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,613,932 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$46,036,333 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 19% implied probability, reflecting his dominance in recent Republican straw polls like CPAC (53% support) and a UMass Lowell survey from late March showing him leading California Governor Gavin Newsom 33-30 in a head-to-head matchup. Newsom trails closely at 17%, bolstered by his national profile as a leading Democratic critic of Trump administration policies, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 9% share stems from GOP donor buzz and his foreign policy visibility. This tight, open-seat contest—barred to President Trump by term limits—remains fluid ahead of 2026 midterms, with separations likely from primary endorsements, fundraising, scandals, or administration performance in battleground states.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$514,708,312
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 19% implied probability, reflecting his dominance in recent Republican straw polls like CPAC (53% support) and a UMass Lowell survey from late March showing him leading California Governor Gavin Newsom 33-30 in a head-to-head matchup. Newsom trails closely at 17%, bolstered by his national profile as a leading Democratic critic of Trump administration policies, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 9% share stems from GOP donor buzz and his foreign policy visibility. This tight, open-seat contest—barred to President Trump by term limits—remains fluid ahead of 2026 midterms, with separations likely from primary endorsements, fundraising, scandals, or administration performance in battleground states.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$514,708,312
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 19%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $514.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.