Market icon

"Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office

Market icon

"Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office

Apr 6

Apr 6

Apr 13

Apr 13

Apr 6

Apr 6

Apr 13

Apr 13

>80m 51%

75-80m 30%

70-75m 19%

65-70m 18%

Polymarket
NEW

>80m 51%

75-80m 30%

70-75m 19%

65-70m 18%

Polymarket
NEW

<60m

$43 Vol.

14%

60-65m

$23 Vol.

16%

65-70m

$2 Vol.

18%

70-75m

$2 Vol.

19%

75-80m

$9 Vol.

42%

>80m

$348 Vol.

43%

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Lionsgate's Michael Jackson biopic "Michael" has surged in trader consensus toward a robust domestic opening weekend above $75 million, fueled by three-week tracking released April 2 showing presales exceeding expectations for a record-breaking musical biopic debut—potentially topping Bohemian Rhapsody's $51 million and Straight Outta Compton's $60 million starts. Strong advance ticket sales for early fan screenings on April 22, combined with Jaafar Jackson's uncanny portrayal and the trailer's record views, have lifted implied probabilities for the 75-80m (42.5%) and >80m (41.5%) brackets into a dead heat, while lower ranges lag amid competition from Super Mario Galaxy and Project Hail Mary. Recent $15 million reshoots to refine the narrative add polish, but final walkups, exhibitor word-of-mouth, and review embargo lifts before the April 24 bow will decide if it eclipses $80 million.

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$427
End Date
Apr 27, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:50 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.the-numbers.com/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Lionsgate's Michael Jackson biopic "Michael" has surged in trader consensus toward a robust domestic opening weekend above $75 million, fueled by three-week tracking released April 2 showing presales exceeding expectations for a record-breaking musical biopic debut—potentially topping Bohemian Rhapsody's $51 million and Straight Outta Compton's $60 million starts. Strong advance ticket sales for early fan screenings on April 22, combined with Jaafar Jackson's uncanny portrayal and the trailer's record views, have lifted implied probabilities for the 75-80m (42.5%) and >80m (41.5%) brackets into a dead heat, while lower ranges lag amid competition from Super Mario Galaxy and Project Hail Mary. Recent $15 million reshoots to refine the narrative add polish, but final walkups, exhibitor word-of-mouth, and review embargo lifts before the April 24 bow will decide if it eclipses $80 million.

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$427
End Date
Apr 27, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:50 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.the-numbers.com/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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Frequently Asked Questions

""Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is ">80m" at 43%, followed by "75-80m" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

""Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on ""Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for ""Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office" is ">80m" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "75-80m" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for ""Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.