The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's massive $131.7 million domestic opening weekend over Easter propelled it to a $190 million five-day debut, but traders anticipate a front-loaded sophomore frame with market-implied odds favoring under $70 million at 64.5%, aligning with tracking estimates of $60-75 million—a 47-54% drop. Softer word-of-mouth, evidenced by a 62% definite recommend rate versus 82% for the 2023 predecessor and an A- CinemaScore, tempers holdover expectations amid family competition like You, Me & Tuscany. Strong post-holiday weekdays, including a record $14.8 million Tuesday, buoyed the 70-80 million bucket at 34.5%, though higher tiers remain slim. Final tallies through Sunday will confirm momentum toward a potential $250 million domestic cume.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office
<70m 65%
70-80m 34%
80-90m <1%
>90m <1%
$64,956 Vol.
$64,956 Vol.
Apr 13, 2026
<70m
65%
70-80m
34%
80-90m
1%
>90m
1%
<70m 65%
70-80m 34%
80-90m <1%
>90m <1%
$64,956 Vol.
$64,956 Vol.
Apr 13, 2026
<70m
$10,001 Vol.
65%
70-80m
$10,364 Vol.
34%
80-90m
$7,499 Vol.
1%
>90m
$37,092 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's massive $131.7 million domestic opening weekend over Easter propelled it to a $190 million five-day debut, but traders anticipate a front-loaded sophomore frame with market-implied odds favoring under $70 million at 64.5%, aligning with tracking estimates of $60-75 million—a 47-54% drop. Softer word-of-mouth, evidenced by a 62% definite recommend rate versus 82% for the 2023 predecessor and an A- CinemaScore, tempers holdover expectations amid family competition like You, Me & Tuscany. Strong post-holiday weekdays, including a record $14.8 million Tuesday, buoyed the 70-80 million bucket at 34.5%, though higher tiers remain slim. Final tallies through Sunday will confirm momentum toward a potential $250 million domestic cume.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 6, 2026, 5:58 PM ET
Volume
$64,956End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 5:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's massive $131.7 million domestic opening weekend over Easter propelled it to a $190 million five-day debut, but traders anticipate a front-loaded sophomore frame with market-implied odds favoring under $70 million at 64.5%, aligning with tracking estimates of $60-75 million—a 47-54% drop. Softer word-of-mouth, evidenced by a 62% definite recommend rate versus 82% for the 2023 predecessor and an A- CinemaScore, tempers holdover expectations amid family competition like You, Me & Tuscany. Strong post-holiday weekdays, including a record $14.8 million Tuesday, buoyed the 70-80 million bucket at 34.5%, though higher tiers remain slim. Final tallies through Sunday will confirm momentum toward a potential $250 million domestic cume.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$64,956End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 5:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's massive $131.7 million domestic opening weekend over Easter propelled it to a $190 million five-day debut, but traders anticipate a front-loaded sophomore frame with market-implied odds favoring under $70 million at 64.5%, aligning with tracking estimates of $60-75 million—a 47-54% drop. Softer word-of-mouth, evidenced by a 62% definite recommend rate versus 82% for the 2023 predecessor and an A- CinemaScore, tempers holdover expectations amid family competition like You, Me & Tuscany. Strong post-holiday weekdays, including a record $14.8 million Tuesday, buoyed the 70-80 million bucket at 34.5%, though higher tiers remain slim. Final tallies through Sunday will confirm momentum toward a potential $250 million domestic cume.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions