Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's back-to-back scandals—including the March 3 resignations of two top aides under White House ultimatum amid misconduct investigations and March 20 affair allegations involving her bodyguard—have positioned her as trader consensus favorite at 37% to exit next, amid broader administration turnover following Attorney General Pam Bondi's recent ouster. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trails at 18% due to February Epstein files scrutiny prompting bipartisan resignation calls, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's 15% reflects April 2 firing of the Army chief and March promotion blocks amid Iran war tensions. DNI Tulsi Gabbard at 13% faces reports of Trump's private replacement discussions, underscoring elevated cabinet instability with no imminent resolution triggers specified.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLori Chavez-DeRemer 44%
Pete Hegseth 15%
Tulsi Gabbard 13%
Howard Lutnick 11%
$22,234 Vol.
$22,234 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
37%
Pete Hegseth
15%
Tulsi Gabbard
13%
Howard Lutnick
11%
Russell T. Vought
5%
Lee Zeldin
5%
Chris Wright
5%
Doug Burgum
4%
Linda McMahon
3%
Susie Wiles
3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
None before 2027
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Scott Turner
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Scott Bessent
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Brooke Rollins
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 44%
Pete Hegseth 15%
Tulsi Gabbard 13%
Howard Lutnick 11%
$22,234 Vol.
$22,234 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$2,617 Vol.
37%
Pete Hegseth
$1,463 Vol.
15%
Tulsi Gabbard
$1,313 Vol.
13%
Howard Lutnick
$923 Vol.
11%
Russell T. Vought
$662 Vol.
5%
Lee Zeldin
$2,077 Vol.
5%
Chris Wright
$669 Vol.
5%
Doug Burgum
$636 Vol.
4%
Linda McMahon
$669 Vol.
3%
Susie Wiles
$893 Vol.
3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$1,171 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$676 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$909 Vol.
2%
None before 2027
$745 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$1,006 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$843 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$760 Vol.
1%
Scott Bessent
$641 Vol.
1%
Jamieson Greer
$991 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$665 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$542 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$612 Vol.
<1%
Brooke Rollins
$753 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's back-to-back scandals—including the March 3 resignations of two top aides under White House ultimatum amid misconduct investigations and March 20 affair allegations involving her bodyguard—have positioned her as trader consensus favorite at 37% to exit next, amid broader administration turnover following Attorney General Pam Bondi's recent ouster. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trails at 18% due to February Epstein files scrutiny prompting bipartisan resignation calls, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's 15% reflects April 2 firing of the Army chief and March promotion blocks amid Iran war tensions. DNI Tulsi Gabbard at 13% faces reports of Trump's private replacement discussions, underscoring elevated cabinet instability with no imminent resolution triggers specified.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$22,234End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's back-to-back scandals—including the March 3 resignations of two top aides under White House ultimatum amid misconduct investigations and March 20 affair allegations involving her bodyguard—have positioned her as trader consensus favorite at 37% to exit next, amid broader administration turnover following Attorney General Pam Bondi's recent ouster. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trails at 18% due to February Epstein files scrutiny prompting bipartisan resignation calls, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's 15% reflects April 2 firing of the Army chief and March promotion blocks amid Iran war tensions. DNI Tulsi Gabbard at 13% faces reports of Trump's private replacement discussions, underscoring elevated cabinet instability with no imminent resolution triggers specified.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$22,234End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's back-to-back scandals—including the March 3 resignations of two top aides under White House ultimatum amid misconduct investigations and March 20 affair allegations involving her bodyguard—have positioned her as trader consensus favorite at 37% to exit next, amid broader administration turnover following Attorney General Pam Bondi's recent ouster. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trails at 18% due to February Epstein files scrutiny prompting bipartisan resignation calls, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's 15% reflects April 2 firing of the Army chief and March promotion blocks amid Iran war tensions. DNI Tulsi Gabbard at 13% faces reports of Trump's private replacement discussions, underscoring elevated cabinet instability with no imminent resolution triggers specified.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions