Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcasts Q1 2026 real GDP growth at 1.3% as of April 9—down from an initial 3.1% in February—anchoring trader sentiment in the closely contested 1.0–2.5% range, where implied probabilities total over 67%. This reflects softening personal consumption expenditures nowcast at 1.1%, partially offset by gains in private investment (6.3%) and government spending, following Q4 2025's decelerated 0.5% third estimate. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000 versus 60,000 expected and ISM manufacturing hit 52.7, signaling labor resilience, but widening February trade deficit tempers optimism. Key swing factors include March retail sales and inventories data due April 21, ahead of BEA's advance estimate April 30; historical nowcast errors underscore resolution uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS GDP growth in Q1 2026?
US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
1.5–2.0% 20.6%
2.0–2.5% 17.4%
1.0–1.5% 17.4%
3.0–3.5% 14%
$275,959 Vol.
$275,959 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<1.0%
10%
1.0–1.5%
17%
1.5–2.0%
21%
2.0–2.5%
17%
2.5–3.0%
11%
3.0–3.5%
14%
≥3.5%
8%
1.5–2.0% 20.6%
2.0–2.5% 17.4%
1.0–1.5% 17.4%
3.0–3.5% 14%
$275,959 Vol.
$275,959 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<1.0%
$24,968 Vol.
10%
1.0–1.5%
$5,705 Vol.
17%
1.5–2.0%
$20,808 Vol.
21%
2.0–2.5%
$43,504 Vol.
17%
2.5–3.0%
$21,698 Vol.
11%
3.0–3.5%
$85,586 Vol.
14%
≥3.5%
$73,691 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcasts Q1 2026 real GDP growth at 1.3% as of April 9—down from an initial 3.1% in February—anchoring trader sentiment in the closely contested 1.0–2.5% range, where implied probabilities total over 67%. This reflects softening personal consumption expenditures nowcast at 1.1%, partially offset by gains in private investment (6.3%) and government spending, following Q4 2025's decelerated 0.5% third estimate. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000 versus 60,000 expected and ISM manufacturing hit 52.7, signaling labor resilience, but widening February trade deficit tempers optimism. Key swing factors include March retail sales and inventories data due April 21, ahead of BEA's advance estimate April 30; historical nowcast errors underscore resolution uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$275,959End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcasts Q1 2026 real GDP growth at 1.3% as of April 9—down from an initial 3.1% in February—anchoring trader sentiment in the closely contested 1.0–2.5% range, where implied probabilities total over 67%. This reflects softening personal consumption expenditures nowcast at 1.1%, partially offset by gains in private investment (6.3%) and government spending, following Q4 2025's decelerated 0.5% third estimate. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000 versus 60,000 expected and ISM manufacturing hit 52.7, signaling labor resilience, but widening February trade deficit tempers optimism. Key swing factors include March retail sales and inventories data due April 21, ahead of BEA's advance estimate April 30; historical nowcast errors underscore resolution uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$275,959End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcasts Q1 2026 real GDP growth at 1.3% as of April 9—down from an initial 3.1% in February—anchoring trader sentiment in the closely contested 1.0–2.5% range, where implied probabilities total over 67%. This reflects softening personal consumption expenditures nowcast at 1.1%, partially offset by gains in private investment (6.3%) and government spending, following Q4 2025's decelerated 0.5% third estimate. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000 versus 60,000 expected and ISM manufacturing hit 52.7, signaling labor resilience, but widening February trade deficit tempers optimism. Key swing factors include March retail sales and inventories data due April 21, ahead of BEA's advance estimate April 30; historical nowcast errors underscore resolution uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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