Market icon
Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Market icon
Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$1,300,233 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,300,233 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5.5%

$43,772 Vol.

8%

↑ 5.25%

$138,678 Vol.

6%

↑ 5.0%

$11,376 Vol.

4%

↑ 4.75%

$68,413 Vol.

6%

↑ 4.5%

$11,270 Vol.

7%

↑ 4.25%

$22,664 Vol.

8%

↓ 3.25%

$54,721 Vol.

68%

↓ 3.0%

$221,714 Vol.

33%

↓ 2.75%

$252,699 Vol.

17%

↓ 2.5%

$172,316 Vol.

17%

↓ 2.25%

$22,991 Vol.

8%

↓ 2.0%

$15,062 Vol.

8%

↓ 1.75%

$7,348 Vol.

7%

↓ 1.5%

$24,873 Vol.

7%

↓ 1.25%

$893 Vol.

10%

↓ 1.0%

$0 Vol.

7%

↓ 0.75%

$388 Vol.

9%

↓ 0.5%

$92,504 Vol.

4%

↓ 0.25%

$118,881 Vol.

5%

↓ 0%

$10,716 Vol.

6%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the effective rate at 3.64% as of early April. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% monthly energy index spike, including 21.2% gasoline gains amid Middle East oil shocks and potential tariff effects. FOMC minutes released April 8 reveal growing openness to rate hikes if inflation proves persistent, though baseline projections still anticipate two 25 basis point cuts later in 2026 amid 4.4% unemployment and labor softening. Prediction market traders, wagering over $1.3 million, largely anticipate eventual easing before 2027, pricing low odds for significant hikes. Key catalysts: April 28-29 FOMC and May 12 CPI release.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,300,233
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the effective rate at 3.64% as of early April. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% monthly energy index spike, including 21.2% gasoline gains amid Middle East oil shocks and potential tariff effects. FOMC minutes released April 8 reveal growing openness to rate hikes if inflation proves persistent, though baseline projections still anticipate two 25 basis point cuts later in 2026 amid 4.4% unemployment and labor softening. Prediction market traders, wagering over $1.3 million, largely anticipate eventual easing before 2027, pricing low odds for significant hikes. Key catalysts: April 28-29 FOMC and May 12 CPI release.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,300,233
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, followed by " ↓ 3.25%" at 68%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is " ↓ 3.25%" at 68%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.