Polymarket traders overwhelmingly favor no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with a 91% implied probability reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus amid surging inflation pressures. Yesterday's March 2026 CPI revealed 3.3% year-over-year headline inflation—the highest since mid-2024—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike from gasoline amid Iran-related oil disruptions, alongside hotter core readings. This builds on March's robust 178,000 nonfarm payroll gain and the Fed's March hold at 3.50%-3.75%, where the dot plot median penciled in just one 25 basis point cut by year-end 2026. Sticky inflation and resilient labor markets underpin the pause, though sharp April jobs weakness or sub-2.5% core CPI could prompt repricing toward easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed Decision in June?
Fed Decision in June?
No change 91%
25 bps decrease 7%
25 bps increase 1.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$6,650,427 Vol.
$6,650,427 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
91%
25 bps increase
1%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 91%
25 bps decrease 7%
25 bps increase 1.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$6,650,427 Vol.
$6,650,427 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,927,218 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$985,929 Vol.
7%
No change
$1,306,258 Vol.
91%
25 bps increase
$1,310,341 Vol.
1%
50+ bps increase
$1,120,799 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly favor no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with a 91% implied probability reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus amid surging inflation pressures. Yesterday's March 2026 CPI revealed 3.3% year-over-year headline inflation—the highest since mid-2024—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike from gasoline amid Iran-related oil disruptions, alongside hotter core readings. This builds on March's robust 178,000 nonfarm payroll gain and the Fed's March hold at 3.50%-3.75%, where the dot plot median penciled in just one 25 basis point cut by year-end 2026. Sticky inflation and resilient labor markets underpin the pause, though sharp April jobs weakness or sub-2.5% core CPI could prompt repricing toward easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$6,650,427End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly favor no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with a 91% implied probability reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus amid surging inflation pressures. Yesterday's March 2026 CPI revealed 3.3% year-over-year headline inflation—the highest since mid-2024—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike from gasoline amid Iran-related oil disruptions, alongside hotter core readings. This builds on March's robust 178,000 nonfarm payroll gain and the Fed's March hold at 3.50%-3.75%, where the dot plot median penciled in just one 25 basis point cut by year-end 2026. Sticky inflation and resilient labor markets underpin the pause, though sharp April jobs weakness or sub-2.5% core CPI could prompt repricing toward easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$6,650,427End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly favor no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with a 91% implied probability reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus amid surging inflation pressures. Yesterday's March 2026 CPI revealed 3.3% year-over-year headline inflation—the highest since mid-2024—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike from gasoline amid Iran-related oil disruptions, alongside hotter core readings. This builds on March's robust 178,000 nonfarm payroll gain and the Fed's March hold at 3.50%-3.75%, where the dot plot median penciled in just one 25 basis point cut by year-end 2026. Sticky inflation and resilient labor markets underpin the pause, though sharp April jobs weakness or sub-2.5% core CPI could prompt repricing toward easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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