Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 54% implied probability to exactly one dissent at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with 35% for two, reflecting fractures highlighted in the March 17-18 minutes released April 8. Those minutes noted a vast majority viewing slower progress toward 2% inflation amid heightened persistence risks from Middle East oil shocks and resilient labor data—March unemployment held at 4.3% with 178,000 jobs added, exceeding forecasts. Despite only Miran dissenting in March versus prior expectations of three (including Waller, Bowman), two-sided economic risks have eroded unanimity on the 3.50%-3.75% fed funds stance. Traders eye April CPI (due soon) and Q1 GDP for potential hawkish reinforcement ahead of policy deliberations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 55%
2 35%
3 6%
0 5.3%
$23,269 Vol.
$23,269 Vol.
0
5%
1
55%
2
35%
3
6%
4+
2%
1 55%
2 35%
3 6%
0 5.3%
$23,269 Vol.
$23,269 Vol.
0
5%
1
55%
2
35%
3
6%
4+
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 8:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 54% implied probability to exactly one dissent at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with 35% for two, reflecting fractures highlighted in the March 17-18 minutes released April 8. Those minutes noted a vast majority viewing slower progress toward 2% inflation amid heightened persistence risks from Middle East oil shocks and resilient labor data—March unemployment held at 4.3% with 178,000 jobs added, exceeding forecasts. Despite only Miran dissenting in March versus prior expectations of three (including Waller, Bowman), two-sided economic risks have eroded unanimity on the 3.50%-3.75% fed funds stance. Traders eye April CPI (due soon) and Q1 GDP for potential hawkish reinforcement ahead of policy deliberations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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