Polymarket traders price China's 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 0.6–1.0% band at 29% implied probability, reflecting moderation after March's 1.0% year-over-year print—below the 1.2% consensus and down from February's 1.3% Lunar New Year spike—while Q1 averaged under 1%. This trader consensus anticipates the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) appropriately loose monetary policy sustaining demand amid property sector headwinds and export volatility, yet falling short of the official ~2% target. Deflation risks (-0.9% to 0.0% bins at ~19%) persist from weak consumption, but PPI's shift to 0.5% growth signals producer price recovery. Key swing factors include April CPI (due mid-May) and Q2 GDP data, with higher bands (2.5%+) hinging on stimulus escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedChina Annual Inflation 2026
China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0% 29%
2.5%+ 17.3%
1.1 – 1.5% 15%
-0.4 – 0.0% 12.0%
$31,529 Vol.
$31,529 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<-1.0%
3%
-0.9 – -0.5%
10%
-0.4 – 0.0%
9%
0.1 – 0.5%
5%
0.6 – 1.0%
29%
1.1 – 1.5%
15%
1.6 – 2.0%
8%
2.0-2.4%
6%
2.5%+
17%
0.6 – 1.0% 29%
2.5%+ 17.3%
1.1 – 1.5% 15%
-0.4 – 0.0% 12.0%
$31,529 Vol.
$31,529 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<-1.0%
$16,740 Vol.
3%
-0.9 – -0.5%
$1,733 Vol.
10%
-0.4 – 0.0%
$1,765 Vol.
9%
0.1 – 0.5%
$1,606 Vol.
5%
0.6 – 1.0%
$1,819 Vol.
29%
1.1 – 1.5%
$2,200 Vol.
15%
1.6 – 2.0%
$2,488 Vol.
8%
2.0-2.4%
$1,617 Vol.
6%
2.5%+
$1,562 Vol.
17%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders price China's 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 0.6–1.0% band at 29% implied probability, reflecting moderation after March's 1.0% year-over-year print—below the 1.2% consensus and down from February's 1.3% Lunar New Year spike—while Q1 averaged under 1%. This trader consensus anticipates the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) appropriately loose monetary policy sustaining demand amid property sector headwinds and export volatility, yet falling short of the official ~2% target. Deflation risks (-0.9% to 0.0% bins at ~19%) persist from weak consumption, but PPI's shift to 0.5% growth signals producer price recovery. Key swing factors include April CPI (due mid-May) and Q2 GDP data, with higher bands (2.5%+) hinging on stimulus escalation.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Volume
$31,529End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders price China's 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 0.6–1.0% band at 29% implied probability, reflecting moderation after March's 1.0% year-over-year print—below the 1.2% consensus and down from February's 1.3% Lunar New Year spike—while Q1 averaged under 1%. This trader consensus anticipates the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) appropriately loose monetary policy sustaining demand amid property sector headwinds and export volatility, yet falling short of the official ~2% target. Deflation risks (-0.9% to 0.0% bins at ~19%) persist from weak consumption, but PPI's shift to 0.5% growth signals producer price recovery. Key swing factors include April CPI (due mid-May) and Q2 GDP data, with higher bands (2.5%+) hinging on stimulus escalation.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Volume
$31,529End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price China's 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 0.6–1.0% band at 29% implied probability, reflecting moderation after March's 1.0% year-over-year print—below the 1.2% consensus and down from February's 1.3% Lunar New Year spike—while Q1 averaged under 1%. This trader consensus anticipates the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) appropriately loose monetary policy sustaining demand amid property sector headwinds and export volatility, yet falling short of the official ~2% target. Deflation risks (-0.9% to 0.0% bins at ~19%) persist from weak consumption, but PPI's shift to 0.5% growth signals producer price recovery. Key swing factors include April CPI (due mid-May) and Q2 GDP data, with higher bands (2.5%+) hinging on stimulus escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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