Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—peaking at 25.5% for 3.75%–4.49% annual CPI inflation in 2026—mirror uncertainty over the trajectory after February's 3.21% print, up from January's 2.75%, amid rising fuel costs from West Asia tensions and fading base effects. The Reserve Bank of India's April 8 MPC held repo at 5.25% while raising FY2027 (April 2026–March 2027) CPI forecast to 4.6%, with Q1 at 4.0% and Q3 peaking at 5.2%, signaling upside risks that could pull calendar 2026 average higher versus FY2026's benign 2.1% projection. Key swing factors include tomorrow's March CPI release (consensus ~3.4%), oil price volatility, and monsoon impacts on food inflation, with lower bins betting on disinflation persistence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.25% to 2.99% 30%
3.75% to 4.49% 26%
<0.75% 23%
4.50%+ 21%
$57,390 Vol.
$57,390 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
23%
0.75% to 1.49%
18%
1.50% to 2.24%
26%
2.25% to 2.99%
24%
3.00% to 3.74%
14%
3.75% to 4.49%
26%
4.50%+
21%
2.25% to 2.99% 30%
3.75% to 4.49% 26%
<0.75% 23%
4.50%+ 21%
$57,390 Vol.
$57,390 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
$637 Vol.
23%
0.75% to 1.49%
$276 Vol.
18%
1.50% to 2.24%
$345 Vol.
26%
2.25% to 2.99%
$22,335 Vol.
24%
3.00% to 3.74%
$384 Vol.
14%
3.75% to 4.49%
$22,735 Vol.
26%
4.50%+
$10,677 Vol.
21%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfPolymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—peaking at 25.5% for 3.75%–4.49% annual CPI inflation in 2026—mirror uncertainty over the trajectory after February's 3.21% print, up from January's 2.75%, amid rising fuel costs from West Asia tensions and fading base effects. The Reserve Bank of India's April 8 MPC held repo at 5.25% while raising FY2027 (April 2026–March 2027) CPI forecast to 4.6%, with Q1 at 4.0% and Q3 peaking at 5.2%, signaling upside risks that could pull calendar 2026 average higher versus FY2026's benign 2.1% projection. Key swing factors include tomorrow's March CPI release (consensus ~3.4%), oil price volatility, and monsoon impacts on food inflation, with lower bins betting on disinflation persistence.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$57,390End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfPolymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—peaking at 25.5% for 3.75%–4.49% annual CPI inflation in 2026—mirror uncertainty over the trajectory after February's 3.21% print, up from January's 2.75%, amid rising fuel costs from West Asia tensions and fading base effects. The Reserve Bank of India's April 8 MPC held repo at 5.25% while raising FY2027 (April 2026–March 2027) CPI forecast to 4.6%, with Q1 at 4.0% and Q3 peaking at 5.2%, signaling upside risks that could pull calendar 2026 average higher versus FY2026's benign 2.1% projection. Key swing factors include tomorrow's March CPI release (consensus ~3.4%), oil price volatility, and monsoon impacts on food inflation, with lower bins betting on disinflation persistence.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$57,390End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—peaking at 25.5% for 3.75%–4.49% annual CPI inflation in 2026—mirror uncertainty over the trajectory after February's 3.21% print, up from January's 2.75%, amid rising fuel costs from West Asia tensions and fading base effects. The Reserve Bank of India's April 8 MPC held repo at 5.25% while raising FY2027 (April 2026–March 2027) CPI forecast to 4.6%, with Q1 at 4.0% and Q3 peaking at 5.2%, signaling upside risks that could pull calendar 2026 average higher versus FY2026's benign 2.1% projection. Key swing factors include tomorrow's March CPI release (consensus ~3.4%), oil price volatility, and monsoon impacts on food inflation, with lower bins betting on disinflation persistence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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