Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 38.5% implied probability to South Korea's 2026 annual inflation exceeding 3.0%, the leading outcome amid fragmented pricing, driven by March 2026 CPI rising to 2.2% year-on-year—up from February's 2.0% but below 2.4% forecasts—fueled by elevated oil prices partially offset by government petroleum subsidies. The Bank of Korea held its base rate at 2.50% on April 10, signaling mid-to-high 2% inflation risks from Middle East supply shocks, while major investment banks lifted full-year forecasts to 2.4%. Lower bins like 1.5%-1.7% (23.5%) and 1.8%-2.0% (21.0%) reflect base-case alignment near the BOK's 2.2% projection, with consumer inflation expectations at 2.7%. Key catalysts include upcoming April CPI data due early May and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.0%+ 40%
2.7% to 2.9% 22.1%
1.8% to 2.0% 22%
2.4% to 2.6% 18%
$10,154 Vol.
$10,154 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1.5%
21%
1.5% to 1.7%
20%
1.8% to 2.0%
22%
2.1% to 2.3%
12%
2.4% to 2.6%
18%
2.7% to 2.9%
22%
3.0%+
40%
3.0%+ 40%
2.7% to 2.9% 22.1%
1.8% to 2.0% 22%
2.4% to 2.6% 18%
$10,154 Vol.
$10,154 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1.5%
$937 Vol.
21%
1.5% to 1.7%
$942 Vol.
20%
1.8% to 2.0%
$0 Vol.
22%
2.1% to 2.3%
$121 Vol.
12%
2.4% to 2.6%
$0 Vol.
18%
2.7% to 2.9%
$89 Vol.
22%
3.0%+
$8,066 Vol.
40%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Korea in the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the South Korean Ministry of Data and Statistics (MODS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 38.5% implied probability to South Korea's 2026 annual inflation exceeding 3.0%, the leading outcome amid fragmented pricing, driven by March 2026 CPI rising to 2.2% year-on-year—up from February's 2.0% but below 2.4% forecasts—fueled by elevated oil prices partially offset by government petroleum subsidies. The Bank of Korea held its base rate at 2.50% on April 10, signaling mid-to-high 2% inflation risks from Middle East supply shocks, while major investment banks lifted full-year forecasts to 2.4%. Lower bins like 1.5%-1.7% (23.5%) and 1.8%-2.0% (21.0%) reflect base-case alignment near the BOK's 2.2% projection, with consumer inflation expectations at 2.7%. Key catalysts include upcoming April CPI data due early May and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Korea in the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the South Korean Ministry of Data and Statistics (MODS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Volume
$10,154End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Korea in the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the South Korean Ministry of Data and Statistics (MODS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 38.5% implied probability to South Korea's 2026 annual inflation exceeding 3.0%, the leading outcome amid fragmented pricing, driven by March 2026 CPI rising to 2.2% year-on-year—up from February's 2.0% but below 2.4% forecasts—fueled by elevated oil prices partially offset by government petroleum subsidies. The Bank of Korea held its base rate at 2.50% on April 10, signaling mid-to-high 2% inflation risks from Middle East supply shocks, while major investment banks lifted full-year forecasts to 2.4%. Lower bins like 1.5%-1.7% (23.5%) and 1.8%-2.0% (21.0%) reflect base-case alignment near the BOK's 2.2% projection, with consumer inflation expectations at 2.7%. Key catalysts include upcoming April CPI data due early May and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Korea in the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the South Korean Ministry of Data and Statistics (MODS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000
Volume
$10,154End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 38.5% implied probability to South Korea's 2026 annual inflation exceeding 3.0%, the leading outcome amid fragmented pricing, driven by March 2026 CPI rising to 2.2% year-on-year—up from February's 2.0% but below 2.4% forecasts—fueled by elevated oil prices partially offset by government petroleum subsidies. The Bank of Korea held its base rate at 2.50% on April 10, signaling mid-to-high 2% inflation risks from Middle East supply shocks, while major investment banks lifted full-year forecasts to 2.4%. Lower bins like 1.5%-1.7% (23.5%) and 1.8%-2.0% (21.0%) reflect base-case alignment near the BOK's 2.2% projection, with consumer inflation expectations at 2.7%. Key catalysts include upcoming April CPI data due early May and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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