Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42.8% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with 23.5% for one 25 basis point cut and 17.5% for two, reflecting sticky inflation and resilient labor markets amid geopolitical tensions. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by an oil price shock from the Iran conflict, while core CPI hit 2.6%; February PCE remained at 2.8%. The March 17-18 FOMC dot plot median still projects one cut, lowering the year-end fed funds rate to around 3.4% from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, but recently released minutes indicate officials raised 2026 inflation forecasts and noted openness to hikes. Robust March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 and steady 4.3% unemployment bolster the case for prolonged higher-for-longer policy. Traders eye the April 29 FOMC for signals, with CME FedWatch showing near-certainty of a hold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0 (0 bps) 43.0%
1 (25 bps) 24%
2 (50 bps) 18%
3 (75 bps) 9%
$17,919,573 Vol.
$17,919,573 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
43%
1 (25 bps)
24%
2 (50 bps)
18%
3 (75 bps)
9%
4 (100 bps)
2%
5 (125 bps)
1%
6 (150 bps)
1%
7 (175 bps)
<1%
8 (200 bps)
<1%
9 (225 bps)
<1%
10 (250 bps)
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 43.0%
1 (25 bps) 24%
2 (50 bps) 18%
3 (75 bps) 9%
$17,919,573 Vol.
$17,919,573 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$3,041,720 Vol.
43%
1 (25 bps)
$1,006,547 Vol.
24%
2 (50 bps)
$920,015 Vol.
18%
3 (75 bps)
$893,709 Vol.
9%
4 (100 bps)
$892,914 Vol.
2%
5 (125 bps)
$996,390 Vol.
1%
6 (150 bps)
$2,038,337 Vol.
1%
7 (175 bps)
$888,111 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 bps)
$1,148,992 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 bps)
$1,100,554 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 bps)
$1,549,277 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$1,689,014 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$1,753,994 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42.8% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with 23.5% for one 25 basis point cut and 17.5% for two, reflecting sticky inflation and resilient labor markets amid geopolitical tensions. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by an oil price shock from the Iran conflict, while core CPI hit 2.6%; February PCE remained at 2.8%. The March 17-18 FOMC dot plot median still projects one cut, lowering the year-end fed funds rate to around 3.4% from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, but recently released minutes indicate officials raised 2026 inflation forecasts and noted openness to hikes. Robust March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 and steady 4.3% unemployment bolster the case for prolonged higher-for-longer policy. Traders eye the April 29 FOMC for signals, with CME FedWatch showing near-certainty of a hold.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market Opened: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$17,919,573End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42.8% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with 23.5% for one 25 basis point cut and 17.5% for two, reflecting sticky inflation and resilient labor markets amid geopolitical tensions. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by an oil price shock from the Iran conflict, while core CPI hit 2.6%; February PCE remained at 2.8%. The March 17-18 FOMC dot plot median still projects one cut, lowering the year-end fed funds rate to around 3.4% from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, but recently released minutes indicate officials raised 2026 inflation forecasts and noted openness to hikes. Robust March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 and steady 4.3% unemployment bolster the case for prolonged higher-for-longer policy. Traders eye the April 29 FOMC for signals, with CME FedWatch showing near-certainty of a hold.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$17,919,573End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42.8% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with 23.5% for one 25 basis point cut and 17.5% for two, reflecting sticky inflation and resilient labor markets amid geopolitical tensions. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by an oil price shock from the Iran conflict, while core CPI hit 2.6%; February PCE remained at 2.8%. The March 17-18 FOMC dot plot median still projects one cut, lowering the year-end fed funds rate to around 3.4% from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, but recently released minutes indicate officials raised 2026 inflation forecasts and noted openness to hikes. Robust March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 and steady 4.3% unemployment bolster the case for prolonged higher-for-longer policy. Traders eye the April 29 FOMC for signals, with CME FedWatch showing near-certainty of a hold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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