Persistent Red Sea security threats from Houthi attacks and regional escalations have sustained container ship avoidance of the Suez Canal throughout Q1 2026, driving the market-implied 99.5% probability for fewer than 1,000 transits. Alphaliner data pegged January at a record-low 150 passages, while Suez Canal Authority figures indicate around 230 monthly in February and March—totaling roughly 600-700, versus pre-crisis quarterly norms exceeding 3,000. Carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM conducted test voyages but rerouted broadly around the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated war risk premiums and Hormuz tensions. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in this stark shortfall; tail risks include final data revisions or overlooked late-March surges, though quarter-end closure renders them negligible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?
$53,467 Vol.
$53,467 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$53,467 Vol.
$53,467 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Persistent Red Sea security threats from Houthi attacks and regional escalations have sustained container ship avoidance of the Suez Canal throughout Q1 2026, driving the market-implied 99.5% probability for fewer than 1,000 transits. Alphaliner data pegged January at a record-low 150 passages, while Suez Canal Authority figures indicate around 230 monthly in February and March—totaling roughly 600-700, versus pre-crisis quarterly norms exceeding 3,000. Carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM conducted test voyages but rerouted broadly around the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated war risk premiums and Hormuz tensions. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in this stark shortfall; tail risks include final data revisions or overlooked late-March surges, though quarter-end closure renders them negligible.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$53,467End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Persistent Red Sea security threats from Houthi attacks and regional escalations have sustained container ship avoidance of the Suez Canal throughout Q1 2026, driving the market-implied 99.5% probability for fewer than 1,000 transits. Alphaliner data pegged January at a record-low 150 passages, while Suez Canal Authority figures indicate around 230 monthly in February and March—totaling roughly 600-700, versus pre-crisis quarterly norms exceeding 3,000. Carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM conducted test voyages but rerouted broadly around the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated war risk premiums and Hormuz tensions. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in this stark shortfall; tail risks include final data revisions or overlooked late-March surges, though quarter-end closure renders them negligible.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Volume
$53,467End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent Red Sea security threats from Houthi attacks and regional escalations have sustained container ship avoidance of the Suez Canal throughout Q1 2026, driving the market-implied 99.5% probability for fewer than 1,000 transits. Alphaliner data pegged January at a record-low 150 passages, while Suez Canal Authority figures indicate around 230 monthly in February and March—totaling roughly 600-700, versus pre-crisis quarterly norms exceeding 3,000. Carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM conducted test voyages but rerouted broadly around the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated war risk premiums and Hormuz tensions. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in this stark shortfall; tail risks include final data revisions or overlooked late-March surges, though quarter-end closure renders them negligible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions