Trader consensus assigns an 80.5% implied probability to "No" megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event per USGS criteria—by June 30, driven by the absence of foreshocks, seismic swarms, or anomalous strain in key subduction zones like Japan's Nankai Trough and the Cascadia fault. Recent USGS data confirms normal global activity, with the largest quakes a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, too modest to signal escalation. Long-term risks persist—Nankai forecasts indicate 60-94.5% odds over 30 years, and Cascadia studies note ongoing stress buildup—but short-term unpredictability dominates scientific assessments. Continuous USGS monitoring and model updates will refine this outlook ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$43,547 Vol.
$43,547 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$43,547 Vol.
$43,547 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus assigns an 80.5% implied probability to "No" megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event per USGS criteria—by June 30, driven by the absence of foreshocks, seismic swarms, or anomalous strain in key subduction zones like Japan's Nankai Trough and the Cascadia fault. Recent USGS data confirms normal global activity, with the largest quakes a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, too modest to signal escalation. Long-term risks persist—Nankai forecasts indicate 60-94.5% odds over 30 years, and Cascadia studies note ongoing stress buildup—but short-term unpredictability dominates scientific assessments. Continuous USGS monitoring and model updates will refine this outlook ahead of resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$43,547End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus assigns an 80.5% implied probability to "No" megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event per USGS criteria—by June 30, driven by the absence of foreshocks, seismic swarms, or anomalous strain in key subduction zones like Japan's Nankai Trough and the Cascadia fault. Recent USGS data confirms normal global activity, with the largest quakes a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, too modest to signal escalation. Long-term risks persist—Nankai forecasts indicate 60-94.5% odds over 30 years, and Cascadia studies note ongoing stress buildup—but short-term unpredictability dominates scientific assessments. Continuous USGS monitoring and model updates will refine this outlook ahead of resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$43,547End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns an 80.5% implied probability to "No" megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event per USGS criteria—by June 30, driven by the absence of foreshocks, seismic swarms, or anomalous strain in key subduction zones like Japan's Nankai Trough and the Cascadia fault. Recent USGS data confirms normal global activity, with the largest quakes a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, too modest to signal escalation. Long-term risks persist—Nankai forecasts indicate 60-94.5% odds over 30 years, and Cascadia studies note ongoing stress buildup—but short-term unpredictability dominates scientific assessments. Continuous USGS monitoring and model updates will refine this outlook ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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