Trader consensus assigns a commanding 98.3% implied probability to military action against Iran ending on April 9, reflecting the absence of credible reports confirming US or Israeli drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian soil that date under Iran Standard Time, per market resolution rules. This positioning stems from a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire announced around April 8, with the White House verifying a suspension of strikes after weeks of escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, where prior threats of infrastructure attacks gave way to de-escalation signals from President Trump. Last verified qualifying actions preceded an April 7 pause, enabling April 9 as the first clean day amid ongoing diplomatic talks in Islamabad. While probabilities exceed 90%, outcomes could shift via late consensus reporting of unreported April 9 strikes within the three-day confirmation window, Iranian non-compliance prompting resumption, or proxy escalations like Lebanon strikes spilling over, potentially favoring later dates or continuation through April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedApril 9 98.2%
Military action through April 30 <1%
April 10 <1%
April 12 <1%
$9,400,599 Vol.
$9,400,599 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 9
98%
April 10
1%
April 11
<1%
April 12
<1%
April 13
<1%
April 14
<1%
April 15
<1%
April 16
<1%
April 17
<1%
April 18
<1%
April 19
<1%
April 20
<1%
April 21
<1%
April 22
<1%
April 23
<1%
April 24
<1%
April 25
<1%
April 26
<1%
April 27
<1%
April 28
<1%
April 29
<1%
April 30
<1%
Military action through April 30
1%
April 9 98.2%
Military action through April 30 <1%
April 10 <1%
April 12 <1%
$9,400,599 Vol.
$9,400,599 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 9
$721,827 Vol.
98%
April 10
$690,666 Vol.
1%
April 11
$661,168 Vol.
<1%
April 12
$560,499 Vol.
<1%
April 13
$413,179 Vol.
<1%
April 14
$343,527 Vol.
<1%
April 15
$351,038 Vol.
<1%
April 16
$306,914 Vol.
<1%
April 17
$297,884 Vol.
<1%
April 18
$292,841 Vol.
<1%
April 19
$242,967 Vol.
<1%
April 20
$208,600 Vol.
<1%
April 21
$202,662 Vol.
<1%
April 22
$187,266 Vol.
<1%
April 23
$167,905 Vol.
<1%
April 24
$169,722 Vol.
<1%
April 25
$171,345 Vol.
<1%
April 26
$277,488 Vol.
<1%
April 27
$206,826 Vol.
<1%
April 28
$175,708 Vol.
<1%
April 29
$1,604,254 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$274,336 Vol.
<1%
Military action through April 30
$606,535 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns a commanding 98.3% implied probability to military action against Iran ending on April 9, reflecting the absence of credible reports confirming US or Israeli drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian soil that date under Iran Standard Time, per market resolution rules. This positioning stems from a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire announced around April 8, with the White House verifying a suspension of strikes after weeks of escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, where prior threats of infrastructure attacks gave way to de-escalation signals from President Trump. Last verified qualifying actions preceded an April 7 pause, enabling April 9 as the first clean day amid ongoing diplomatic talks in Islamabad. While probabilities exceed 90%, outcomes could shift via late consensus reporting of unreported April 9 strikes within the three-day confirmation window, Iranian non-compliance prompting resumption, or proxy escalations like Lebanon strikes spilling over, potentially favoring later dates or continuation through April 30.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Volume
$9,400,599End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns a commanding 98.3% implied probability to military action against Iran ending on April 9, reflecting the absence of credible reports confirming US or Israeli drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian soil that date under Iran Standard Time, per market resolution rules. This positioning stems from a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire announced around April 8, with the White House verifying a suspension of strikes after weeks of escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, where prior threats of infrastructure attacks gave way to de-escalation signals from President Trump. Last verified qualifying actions preceded an April 7 pause, enabling April 9 as the first clean day amid ongoing diplomatic talks in Islamabad. While probabilities exceed 90%, outcomes could shift via late consensus reporting of unreported April 9 strikes within the three-day confirmation window, Iranian non-compliance prompting resumption, or proxy escalations like Lebanon strikes spilling over, potentially favoring later dates or continuation through April 30.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,400,599End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns a commanding 98.3% implied probability to military action against Iran ending on April 9, reflecting the absence of credible reports confirming US or Israeli drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian soil that date under Iran Standard Time, per market resolution rules. This positioning stems from a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire announced around April 8, with the White House verifying a suspension of strikes after weeks of escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, where prior threats of infrastructure attacks gave way to de-escalation signals from President Trump. Last verified qualifying actions preceded an April 7 pause, enabling April 9 as the first clean day amid ongoing diplomatic talks in Islamabad. While probabilities exceed 90%, outcomes could shift via late consensus reporting of unreported April 9 strikes within the three-day confirmation window, Iranian non-compliance prompting resumption, or proxy escalations like Lebanon strikes spilling over, potentially favoring later dates or continuation through April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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