A March 2026 U.S. intelligence community's Annual Threat Assessment concluded that China does not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, preferring unification without force amid ongoing military modernization, anchoring trader consensus at 86.5% for no military clash before year-end. This shifted sentiment from prior "Davidson window" fears of 2027 readiness, reinforced by a mysterious 10-day lull in People's Liberation Army aircraft incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone in early March—resumed at routine levels with 121 flights that month but no escalation to live-fire or blockades. Taiwan's scheduled April computer-assisted drills and U.S. distractions in Middle East conflicts add monitoring points, though coercive patrols persist without crossing into armed confrontation thresholds. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden PLA surges could shift odds, but current de-escalation signals dominate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,576,806 Vol.
$1,576,806 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$1,576,806 Vol.
$1,576,806 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.A March 2026 U.S. intelligence community's Annual Threat Assessment concluded that China does not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, preferring unification without force amid ongoing military modernization, anchoring trader consensus at 86.5% for no military clash before year-end. This shifted sentiment from prior "Davidson window" fears of 2027 readiness, reinforced by a mysterious 10-day lull in People's Liberation Army aircraft incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone in early March—resumed at routine levels with 121 flights that month but no escalation to live-fire or blockades. Taiwan's scheduled April computer-assisted drills and U.S. distractions in Middle East conflicts add monitoring points, though coercive patrols persist without crossing into armed confrontation thresholds. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden PLA surges could shift odds, but current de-escalation signals dominate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,576,806End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.A March 2026 U.S. intelligence community's Annual Threat Assessment concluded that China does not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, preferring unification without force amid ongoing military modernization, anchoring trader consensus at 86.5% for no military clash before year-end. This shifted sentiment from prior "Davidson window" fears of 2027 readiness, reinforced by a mysterious 10-day lull in People's Liberation Army aircraft incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone in early March—resumed at routine levels with 121 flights that month but no escalation to live-fire or blockades. Taiwan's scheduled April computer-assisted drills and U.S. distractions in Middle East conflicts add monitoring points, though coercive patrols persist without crossing into armed confrontation thresholds. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden PLA surges could shift odds, but current de-escalation signals dominate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,576,806End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A March 2026 U.S. intelligence community's Annual Threat Assessment concluded that China does not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, preferring unification without force amid ongoing military modernization, anchoring trader consensus at 86.5% for no military clash before year-end. This shifted sentiment from prior "Davidson window" fears of 2027 readiness, reinforced by a mysterious 10-day lull in People's Liberation Army aircraft incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone in early March—resumed at routine levels with 121 flights that month but no escalation to live-fire or blockades. Taiwan's scheduled April computer-assisted drills and U.S. distractions in Middle East conflicts add monitoring points, though coercive patrols persist without crossing into armed confrontation thresholds. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden PLA surges could shift odds, but current de-escalation signals dominate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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